●UFC 329 · FREE PUBLIC BETA · CARD OPEN/PRICES JUL 10, 11:00 UTC
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — model predictions, odds & how each fight ends
UFC 329 · free public beta
Sat, Jul 11 · 13 bouts
UFC 329 — McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Every model pick, every finish forecast, and every official play — free. The confidence is a probability. Nothing on this card is a lock.
13
Fights modeled
11
Projected finishes
3
Model upsets
9
Qualifying edges
Model upset = the model's favored side differs from the market favorite · Qualifying edge = cleared the frozen betting rules
Track record+26% ROI+501.64 u1,902 bets · backtested, profitable 2023–26full ledger →ARED · SOUTHPAW
McGregor
22-6 · 37y · 73" reach
Strikes/min5.32
KO/15min1.39
Model win prob
29/71
Modal outcome
Holloway · Decision
59% finish · 41% distance
ORTHODOX · BLUEB
Holloway
27-9 · 34y · 70" reach
Strikes/min6.91
KO/15min0.32
■ McGregor■ Holloway
Style fingerprint — where they clash
OUTPUTHolloway lands ~30% more volume — 5.3 vs 6.9 str/min.
KO THREATMcGregor's knockdown rate is 4× higher — the early danger.
DISTANCEBoth live at range (77% / 88%) — this likely stays standing.
READOur model picks Holloway by decision.
Betting & model— price, model number & expected value per side
FighterML | (imp)ModelEV
McGregor+194 | (34%)29%−14%
Holloway-215 | (68%)71%+4%
EDGE +10Under 2.5 rounds @ +145 | (41%)official play
The full card
● qualifying edge · MKT odds | (%) · click any fight to load ↑Most violent fights
11 of 13 projected to finishRanked by finish chance — how likely each fight ends inside the distance.
0167%
Steveson vs Ellison0266%
Gandra vs Reese0364%
Green vs McKinney0459%
Saint-Denis vs Pimblett0559%
McGregor vs Holloway0659%
Pinas vs Almeida0755%
Whittaker vs Krylov0854%
Garbrandt vs Yanez0953%
Durden vs Costa1052%
Riley vs Kamaka1152%
Royval vs Kavanaghupset1243%
Cortez vs Congupset1343%
Sandhagen vs Bautistaupset
Official plays — free for UFC 329
prices as of Jul 10, 11:00 UTCPrices move. The record should not. These plays were captured as prices appeared during fight week. Each row shows the recorded capture price beside the latest available price — official grading always uses the capture price. Scheduled for today's pre-fight commitment.
Two checks, two claims: public line history can verify that each quoted price existed on the operator-recorded capture day; the hash published before the first fight proves the complete card was fixed before the fights. Neither check claims more than that.
reading a row: edge (pp) · the play · captured day & price → current · market family
+10.95captured +1600+10.02captured +145+7captured +190+6.76captured -220+5captured -400+4.78captured +130+4.74captured -145+4.6captured +120→ now +122+2.84captured +4900+2.24captured +350
Zach Reese by SUB
Gandra vs Reese · captured Sat, Jul 11 · @ soft US book
Under 2.5 rounds
McGregor vs Holloway · captured Wed, Jul 1 · @ soft US book
Brandon Royval to win
Royval vs Kavanagh · captured Mon, Jun 29 · model 55% vs sharp fair 36%
Under 1.5 rounds
Green vs McKinney · captured Tue, Jul 7 · @ soft US book
Adrian Yanez to win
Garbrandt vs Yanez · captured Fri, Jul 3 · model 86% vs sharp fair 77%
Under 1.5 rounds
Pinas vs Almeida · captured Tue, Jul 7 · @ offshore book
Over 2.5 rounds
Riley vs Kamaka · captured Tue, Jul 7 · @ offshore book
Mario Bautista to win
Sandhagen vs Bautista · captured Tue, Jun 30 · model 60% vs sharp fair 45%
Adrian Yanez by SUB
Garbrandt vs Yanez · captured Sat, Jul 11 · @ other book
Gable Steveson by SUB
Steveson vs Ellison · captured Sat, Jul 11 · @ other book
The move is the point: early prices do not wait.
The watchlist — not official plays
reference only — never graded, not in the recordRead the card, in order
all posts →1 · Start with the main event