● UFC 329/PRICES JUL 6, 11:43 UTC+14.2% ROI
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 — model predictions, odds & how each fight ends
Sat, Jul 11 · 14 bouts
UFC 329 — McGregor vs. Holloway 2
A prediction model for every UFC fight — who wins, how it ends, and where the odds are wrong.
14
Fights modeled
11
Projected finishes
4
Model upsets
7
Qualifying edges
ARED · SOUTHPAW
McGregor
22-6 · 37y · 73" reach
Strikes/min5.32
KO/15min1.39
Model win prob
29/71
Modal outcome
Holloway · Decision
63% finish · 37% distance
ORTHODOX · BLUEB
Holloway
27-9 · 34y · 70" reach
Strikes/min6.91
KO/15min0.32
■ McGregor■ Holloway
Style fingerprint — where they clash
OUTPUTHolloway lands ~30% more volume — 5.3 vs 6.9 str/min.
KO THREATMcGregor's knockdown rate is 4× higher — the early danger.
DISTANCEBoth live at range (77% / 88%) — this likely stays standing.
READOur model picks Holloway by decision.
Betting & model— price, model number & expected value per side
FighterML | (imp)ModelEV
McGregor+195 | (34%)29%−13%
Holloway-210 | (68%)71%+4%
EDGE +11.4Under 2.5 rounds @ +145 | (41%)vs open · opener
The full card
● qualifying edge · MKT odds | (%) · click any fight to load ↑Most violent fights
11 of 14 projected to finishRanked by finish chance — how likely each fight ends inside the distance.
0167%
Steveson vs Ellison0266%
Gandra vs Reese0365%
Green vs McKinney0463%
McGregor vs Holloway0559%
Saint-Denis vs Pimblett0659%
Pinas vs Almeida0756%
Durden vs Costa0855%
Whittaker vs Krylov0954%
Garbrandt vs Yanez1052%
Royval vs Kavanaghupset1152%
Riley vs Kamaka1243%
Cortez vs Congupset1343%
Sandhagen vs Bautistaupset1429%
Basharat vs Ewingupset
Model edges
free this card · prices as of Jul 6, 11:43 UTCWhere our number disagrees with the books — every official play this card, moneyline & props.
+11.36+145+7+190now +195 · better+6.09-220+5.08-145+4.9-400now -403 · worse+3.6+126now +128 · better+2.2+130
Under 2.5 rounds
McGregor vs Holloway · vs open · @ soft US
Brandon Royval to win
Royval vs Kavanagh · model 55% vs sharp fair 34%
Under 1.5 rounds
Green vs McKinney · vs open · @ soft US
Over 2.5 rounds
Riley vs Kamaka · vs open · @ offshore
Adrian Yanez to win
Garbrandt vs Yanez · model 86% vs sharp fair 78%
Mario Bautista to win
Sandhagen vs Bautista · model 57% vs sharp fair 44%
Under 1.5 rounds
Pinas vs Almeida · vs open · @ offshore
On the radar
model reference — not plays, never gradedLatest analysis
all posts →Fight-week reads on this card — predictions, breakdowns, and where the odds are wrong.