The receipts.

Backtest on one side. Live record on the other. Never mixed.

Every profit number on this page is backtested until UFC 329 is graded. Saturday starts the live record. From there, every official play is committed before the first fight and revealed after. We cannot delete the ugly ones. How it works →

Live — since UFC 329

official plays only · hash-committed pre-lock

● Card assembling→○ Committed→○ Revealed→○ Graded

Capture dates are operator-recorded by day. The published commitment independently proves the complete card existed before the first fight and makes later edits detectable; it does not independently timestamp the earlier selections.

No live victory lap yet. UFC 329 is the first card — assembling now; the commitment publishes before the first fight, and every result lands here after.

Walk-forward backtest 2023–2026

all systems — one walk-forward portfolio

Every model looks smart in hindsight. This one had to move forward: train on the past, price unseen fights, record the result, repeat.

profit at $100/unit

+$50,164

ROI

+26%

bets graded

1,902

win rate

66%

Market	ROI	Units	Bets
Moneyline	+26.3%	+306.3	1138
Round total & distance	+25.6%	+195.3	764

Moneyline detail — performance explorer

Moneyline subset of the portfolio above · aggregate view

All time · 2023–2026

Bets

644

Units

+91.6

+$9,160 at $100/u

ROI

+14.2%

Win rate

56%

or drag on the chart

Jan 14, 2023+91.6u totalApr 25, 2026

Monthly ROI — green up, red down. Both colors are the point.

Max drawdown

−11.56u

−$1,156 at $100/u

Longest losing streak

Longest winning streak

CLV

+1.85pp · beat close 58%

Walk-forward backtest · moneyline subset of the portfolio above · aggregates only — the live ledger above is graded pick-by-pick. Losing streaks are expected, not exceptional; a system you can't sit through is a system you don't have.

Six straight losses happened in the moneyline subset. More losing runs will happen live. A system you can't sit through is a system you don't have.

Profitable every year 2023–2026 across 1,902 bets (95% CI on ROI: +21.3% to +30.6%). Dollar figures use the site-standard $100 per unit — at $100/unit the backtest ends +$50,164 up; scale to your own unit. Walk-forward: trained on the past, bet forward on unseen fights, no look-ahead, staked by a fixed policy set in advance. The live ledger above is scoped to official plays only.