Track record

Two ledgers, kept honestly separate: the live record (every official play, hash-committed before the card, graded after) and the walk-forward backtest that validated the system. Backtested — not a guarantee of future results. How it works →

Live — since UFC 329

official plays only · hash-committed pre-lock

First live card: UFC 329 — picks will be locked and hash-committed before the card.

Walk-forward backtest 2023–2026

Moneyline system

All time · 2023–2026

Bets

644

Units

+91.6

+$9,160 at $100/u

ROI

+14.2%

Win rate

56%

or drag on the chart

Jan 14, 2023+91.6u totalApr 25, 2026

Monthly ROI — green up, red down. Both colors are the point.

Max drawdown

−11.56u

−$1,156 at $100/u

Longest losing streak

Longest winning streak

CLV

+1.85pp · beat close 58%

Walk-forward backtest · moneyline system · aggregates only — the live ledger above is graded pick-by-pick. Losing streaks are expected, not exceptional; a system you can't sit through is a system you don't have.

Profitable every year 2023–2026 across 644 bets (95% CI on ROI: +5.8% to +23%). Dollar figures use the site-standard $100 per unit — a flat $100 bettor following the backtest ends +$9,160 up; scale to your own stake. Walk-forward: trained on the past, bet forward on unseen fights, no look-ahead, flat staking. The live ledger above is scoped to official plays only.