KOKNOCKOUT MMA
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Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov — prediction, odds & how it ends

Middleweight · 3R
Red corner
Whittaker
“The Reaper”
26-9 · 71" · Orthodox
LDECLSUBWKOWDECLKO
VS
Blue corner
Krylov
“The Al Capone”
30-11 · 78" · Orthodox
WKOLKOLKOWSUBWDEC
Win probabilitymodel prediction
57%
43%
Whittaker -125+115 Krylov

odds, translated: -125 ≈ 56% implied chance · +115 ≈ 47%

Most likely outcome
Whittaker · Decision
Finish vs decision
55% finish·45% goes the distance
The call

Our model picks Whittaker by decision. The model gives Whittaker 57%.

The market

The current price implies roughly 56%. The model and the market are reading this one the same way.

The danger

Krylov still wins this 43% of the time in the model, and with a 55% chance the fight ends inside the distance, one clean sequence can beat the forecast.

The decision

Model pick, no official bet. A prediction is not automatically a bet; the price didn't clear the rules on this one.

Style clash

career averages vs division benchmark

Bigger polygon = more of that trait. Career averages (not opponent-adjusted); the date is each fighter's last bout.

OutputAccuracyDefenseChinKO threatTakedownsSub threatCardioWhittaker · Output: 4.39Whittaker · Accuracy: 0.43Whittaker · Defense: 0.59Whittaker · Chin: 0.34Whittaker · KO threat: 0.53Whittaker · Takedowns: 0.73Whittaker · Sub threat: 0.00Whittaker · Cardio: 1.07Krylov · Output: 4.36Krylov · Accuracy: 0.54Krylov · Defense: 0.47Krylov · Chin: 0.24Krylov · KO threat: 0.57Krylov · Takedowns: 2.05Krylov · Sub threat: 1.20Krylov · Cardio: 0.56
Whittakeras of 2025-07
Krylovas of 2026-01
Division avg · Middleweight348 fighters

How it ends

method × round

Each cell is the model's chance the fight ends that way, in that round. Brighter = more likely; hover for the exact number.

R1
R2
R3
Whittaker KO
13%
8%
3%
Whittaker SUB
3%
2%
Krylov KO
9%
6%
2%
Krylov SUB
4%
2%
Whittaker decGoes to decision 45%Krylov dec

When it ends

still fighting %

The line is the model's chance the fight is still going after each round — where it drops, finishes cluster.

0255075100After R1: 70% still fightingR1After R2: 51% still fightingR2After R3: 44% still fightingR3
after R1 70% liveafter R2 51% liveafter R3 44% livereaches decision 45%

Tale of the tape

bar = magnitude · bold = edge
71"
Reach
78"
35
Age
34
4.39
Strikes / min
4.36
43%
Strike acc
54%
59%
Strike def
47%
82%
TD def
53%
0.53
Knockdowns / 15m
0.57

Official plays

tracked & graded in the ledger
No official play — the model passes this fight.

Model board

reference only — not bets, not in the track record
Opening price → now · our fair price
Robert Whittakeropen -104▲4.6now -125fair -130
Nikita Krylovopen -116▼7.2now +115fair +130
MarketBestEdge
▸Moneyline(2)
Robert Whittaker to win-125-0.3
Nikita Krylov to win+115-2.7
▸Round totals(3)
Over 2.5 rounds+145+13.1
Over 0.5 rounds-1100~+8.3
Over 1.5 rounds-200+6.3
▸By KO/TKO(6)
Robert Whittaker by KO/TKO+200~-2.4
Robert Whittaker by KO/TKO-115~-2.6
Nikita Krylov by KO/TKO+155~-2.8
Robert Whittaker by KO/TKO+230-3.6
Nikita Krylov by KO/TKO+390-4
Nikita Krylov by KO/TKO+240~-5.6
▸By submission(4)
Robert Whittaker by Sub+2000+0.3
Robert Whittaker by Sub+210~-1
Nikita Krylov by Sub+250~-1.8
Nikita Krylov by Sub+1000-3
▸By decision(2)
Nikita Krylov by Decision+430+1
Robert Whittaker by Decision+270-0.9
▸Round of victory(6)
Robert Whittaker in R1+550~+1.1
Robert Whittaker in R2+750~-1.5
Nikita Krylov in R1+600~-1.7
Nikita Krylov in R2+900~-2.1
Nikita Krylov in R3+1400~-3.4
Robert Whittaker in R3+1100~-4.1
▸Method × round(12)
Robert Whittaker Sub R1+5000~+1
Robert Whittaker Sub R2+6000~+0.2
Robert Whittaker KO R1+650~+0.1
Robert Whittaker Sub R3+6600~-0.7
Nikita Krylov Sub R2+3000~-0.9
Nikita Krylov Sub R1+2000~-1
Nikita Krylov KO R1+900~-1.1
Nikita Krylov KO R2+1400~-1.1
Nikita Krylov Sub R3+4000~-1.5
Robert Whittaker KO R2+875~-1.8
Nikita Krylov KO R3+2000~-2.5
Robert Whittaker KO R3+1300~-3.7
▸Inside distance(2)
Robert Whittaker inside distance+205-3.4
Nikita Krylov inside distance+250-6.5

Moneyline edges are the model's calibrated edge vs the no-vig sharp fair. Prop edges marked ~ have no sharp line (thin / one-book) — treat as unverified. Only the official plays above are bets; everything else here is model reference. Prices as of Jul 10, 11:00 UTC.

Track record+26% ROI1,902 bets · backtested 2023–2026full ledger →

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Style data is snapshotted before fight night, so the model never sees results that hadn't happened yet. Betting edges are measured against the fair price, not the sticker odds — see the methodology and glossary.