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Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov — prediction, odds & how it ends

Middleweight · 3R
Red corner
Whittaker
“The Reaper”
26-9 · 71" · Orthodox
LDECLSUBWKOWDECLKO
VS
Blue corner
Krylov
“The Al Capone”
30-11 · 78" · Orthodox
WKOLKOLKOWSUBWDEC
Win probabilitymodel prediction
57%
43%
Whittaker -139+132 Krylov

odds, translated: -139 ≈ 58% implied chance · +132 ≈ 43%

Most likely outcome
Whittaker · Decision
Finish vs decision
55% finish·45% goes the distance

Style clash

career averages vs division benchmark

Bigger polygon = more of that trait. Career averages (not opponent-adjusted); the date is each fighter's last bout.

OutputAccuracyDefenseChinKO threatTakedownsSub threatCardioWhittaker · Output: 4.39Whittaker · Accuracy: 0.43Whittaker · Defense: 0.59Whittaker · Chin: 0.34Whittaker · KO threat: 0.53Whittaker · Takedowns: 0.73Whittaker · Sub threat: 0.00Whittaker · Cardio: 1.07Krylov · Output: 4.36Krylov · Accuracy: 0.54Krylov · Defense: 0.47Krylov · Chin: 0.24Krylov · KO threat: 0.57Krylov · Takedowns: 2.05Krylov · Sub threat: 1.20Krylov · Cardio: 0.56
Whittakeras of 2025-07
Krylovas of 2026-01
Division avg · Middleweight348 fighters

How it ends

method × round

Each cell is the model's chance the fight ends that way, in that round. Brighter = more likely; hover for the exact number.

R1
R2
R3
Whittaker KO
13%
8%
3%
Whittaker SUB
3%
2%
Krylov KO
9%
6%
2%
Krylov SUB
4%
2%
Whittaker decGoes to decision 45%Krylov dec

When it ends

still fighting %

The line is the model's chance the fight is still going after each round — where it drops, finishes cluster.

0255075100After R1: 70% still fightingR1After R2: 51% still fightingR2After R3: 44% still fightingR3
after R1 70% liveafter R2 51% liveafter R3 44% livereaches decision 45%

Tale of the tape

bar = magnitude · bold = edge
71"
Reach
78"
35
Age
34
4.39
Strikes / min
4.36
43%
Strike acc
54%
59%
Strike def
47%
82%
TD def
53%
0.53
Knockdowns / 15m
0.57

Official plays

tracked & graded in the ledger
No official play — the model passes this fight.

Model board

reference only — not bets, not in the track record
Opening price → now · our fair price
Robert Whittakeropen -104▲7.2now -139fair -130
Nikita Krylovopen -116▼10.6now +132fair +130
MarketBestEdge
▸Moneyline(2)
Nikita Krylov to win+132+1.5
Robert Whittaker to win-1390
▸Round totals(3)
Over 2.5 rounds+145+13.1
Over 0.5 rounds-1100~+8.3
Over 1.5 rounds-200+6.3
▸By KO/TKO(6)
Robert Whittaker by KO/TKO-115~-2.6
Nikita Krylov by KO/TKO+155~-2.8
Robert Whittaker by KO/TKO+185~-4.1
Nikita Krylov by KO/TKO+375~-4.3
Robert Whittaker by KO/TKO+230~-5
Nikita Krylov by KO/TKO+240~-5.6
▸By submission(4)
Robert Whittaker by Sub+1400~-1
Nikita Krylov by Sub+250~-1.8
Robert Whittaker by Sub+195~-2.7
Nikita Krylov by Sub+800~-4.1
▸By decision(2)
Nikita Krylov by Decision+400~-0.3
Robert Whittaker by Decision+250~-3
▸Round of victory(6)
Robert Whittaker in R1+450~-1.7
Nikita Krylov in R1+600~-1.7
Robert Whittaker in R2+650~-3
Nikita Krylov in R2+800~-3.2
Nikita Krylov in R3+1200~-4.5
Robert Whittaker in R3+900~-5.8
▸Method × round(12)
Robert Whittaker KO R1+600~-0.8
Robert Whittaker Sub R1+2500~-0.9
Robert Whittaker Sub R2+3500~-0.9
Nikita Krylov KO R1+900~-1.1
Robert Whittaker Sub R3+5000~-1.2
Robert Whittaker KO R2+875~-1.8
Nikita Krylov Sub R3+3500~-1.8
Nikita Krylov Sub R2+2200~-2
Nikita Krylov Sub R1+1600~-2.1
Nikita Krylov KO R2+1150~-2.4
Nikita Krylov KO R3+1600~-3.6
Robert Whittaker KO R3+1100~-4.9
▸Inside distance(2)
Robert Whittaker inside distance+185~-4.1
Nikita Krylov inside distance+240~-5.6

Moneyline edges are the model's calibrated edge vs the no-vig sharp fair. Prop edges marked ~ have no sharp line (thin / one-book) — treat as unverified. Only the official plays above are bets; everything else here is model reference. Prices as of Jul 6, 11:43 UTC.

Track record+14.2% ROI644 bets · backtested 2023–2026full ledger →
Style data is snapshotted before fight night, so the model never sees results that hadn't happened yet. Betting edges are measured against the fair price, not the sticker odds — see the methodology and glossary.