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Bobby Green vs Terrance McKinney — prediction, odds & how it ends

Lightweight · 3R
Red corner
Green
“King”
35-17-1 · 74" · Orthodox
no UFC bouts
VS
Blue corner
McKinney
“T.Wrecks”
18-8 · 74" · Orthodox
WKOLSUBWSUBWKOLKO
Win probabilitymodel prediction
44%
56%
Green +140-140 McKinney

odds, translated: +140 ≈ 42% implied chance · -140 ≈ 58%

Most likely outcome
McKinney · Decision
Finish vs decision
65% finish·35% goes the distance

Style clash

career averages vs division benchmark

Bigger polygon = more of that trait. Career averages (not opponent-adjusted); the date is each fighter's last bout.

OutputAccuracyDefenseChinKO threatTakedownsSub threatCardioGreen · Output: 6.46Green · Accuracy: 0.53Green · Defense: 0.62Green · Chin: 0.27Green · KO threat: 0.32Green · Takedowns: 1.33Green · Sub threat: 0.30Green · Cardio: 1.70McKinney · Output: 6.53McKinney · Accuracy: 0.55McKinney · Defense: 0.43McKinney · Chin: 0.80McKinney · KO threat: 1.25McKinney · Takedowns: 3.31McKinney · Sub threat: 2.10McKinney · Cardio: 0.00
Greenas of 2026-02
McKinneyas of 2026-03
Division avg · Lightweight437 fighters

How it ends

method × round

Each cell is the model's chance the fight ends that way, in that round. Brighter = more likely; hover for the exact number.

R1
R2
R3
Green KO
6%
5%
1%
Green SUB
8%
7%
2%
McKinney KO
7%
6%
1%
McKinney SUB
10%
9%
2%
Green decGoes to decision 35%McKinney dec

When it ends

still fighting %

The line is the model's chance the fight is still going after each round — where it drops, finishes cluster.

0255075100After R1: 69% still fightingR1After R2: 43% still fightingR2After R3: 37% still fightingR3
after R1 69% liveafter R2 43% liveafter R3 37% livereaches decision 35%

Tale of the tape

bar = magnitude · bold = edge
74"
Reach
74"
39
Age
31
6.46
Strikes / min
6.53
53%
Strike acc
55%
62%
Strike def
43%
72%
TD def
72%
0.32
Knockdowns / 15m
1.25

Official plays

tracked & graded in the ledger
◷ OPENER PLAYUnder 1.5 rounds-220+6.09pp vs open@ soft US book

The opening price hasn't caught up to the fair price — a timing play, and it decays as the line moves.

3 correlated legs suppressed — one play per fight.⚠ cross-direction contradiction

Model board

reference only — not bets, not in the track record
Opening price → now · our fair price
Bobby Greenopen +175▲5.3now +140fair +126
Terrance McKinneyopen -205▼8.9now -140fair -126
MarketBestEdge
▸Moneyline(2)
Bobby Green to win+140+1
Terrance McKinney to win-140-0.5
▸Round totals(3)
Over 1.5 rounds+302+44
Over 0.5 rounds-240~+29.4
Over 2.5 rounds+600~+27.2
▸By KO/TKO(6)
Terrance McKinney by KO/TKO+150~-5.2
Bobby Green by KO/TKO+175~-9.3
Bobby Green by KO/TKO+150~-11.3
Bobby Green by KO/TKO+235~-18.4
Terrance McKinney by KO/TKO+175~-21.2
Terrance McKinney by KO/TKO-150~-24
▸By submission(4)
Bobby Green by Sub+500~+16.2
Terrance McKinney by Sub+225~+9.7
Bobby Green by Sub+800~+6.1
Terrance McKinney by Sub+275~-5.8
▸By decision(2)
Terrance McKinney by Decision+2500~+15.8
Bobby Green by Decision+1600~+9.8
▸Round of victory(6)
Terrance McKinney in R2+1000~+6.1
Bobby Green in R2+800~+1
Terrance McKinney in R3+2500~-0.4
Bobby Green in R3+1600~-3.2
Bobby Green in R1+325~-9.7
Terrance McKinney in R1+110~-30.2
▸Method × round(12)
Terrance McKinney Sub R2+2200~+4.4
Bobby Green Sub R2+2500~+3.4
Bobby Green Sub R1+1600~+2.5
Terrance McKinney Sub R3+5500~+0.2
Bobby Green Sub R3+5500~-0.2
Terrance McKinney KO R2+1400~-0.3
Terrance McKinney KO R3+3500~-1.3
Bobby Green KO R3+2000~-3.7
Bobby Green KO R2+900~-5.2
Bobby Green KO R1+550~-9.9
Terrance McKinney Sub R1+375~-11
Terrance McKinney KO R1+275~-19.3
▸Inside distance(2)
Bobby Green inside distance+150~-11.3
Terrance McKinney inside distance-125~-19.6

Moneyline edges are the model's calibrated edge vs the no-vig sharp fair. Prop edges marked ~ have no sharp line (thin / one-book) — treat as unverified. Only the official plays above are bets; everything else here is model reference. Prices as of Jul 6, 11:43 UTC.

Track record+14.2% ROI644 bets · backtested 2023–2026full ledger →
Style data is snapshotted before fight night, so the model never sees results that hadn't happened yet. Betting edges are measured against the fair price, not the sticker odds — see the methodology and glossary.