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Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh — prediction, odds & how it ends

Flyweight · 3R
Red corner
Royval
“Raw Dawg”
17-9 · 70.5" · Southpaw
LKOLDECWDECWDECLDEC
VS
Blue corner
Kavanagh
10-1 · 67" · Orthodox
WDECLKOWDECWDEC
Win probabilitymodel prediction
55%
45%
Royval +195-215 Kavanagh

odds, translated: +195 ≈ 34% implied chance · -215 ≈ 68%

Most likely outcome
Royval · Decision
Finish vs decision
52% finish·48% goes the distance

Style clash

career averages vs division benchmark

Bigger polygon = more of that trait. Career averages (not opponent-adjusted); the date is each fighter's last bout.

OutputAccuracyDefenseChinKO threatTakedownsSub threatCardioRoyval · Output: 5.54Royval · Accuracy: 0.41Royval · Defense: 0.43Royval · Chin: 0.39Royval · KO threat: 0.33Royval · Takedowns: 0.65Royval · Sub threat: 1.10Royval · Cardio: 2.11Kavanagh · Output: 4.13Kavanagh · Accuracy: 0.48Kavanagh · Defense: 0.56Kavanagh · Chin: 0.00Kavanagh · KO threat: 0.36Kavanagh · Takedowns: 1.12Kavanagh · Sub threat: 0.20Kavanagh · Cardio: 0.00
Royvalas of 2025-12
Kavanaghcareer
Division avg · Flyweight133 fighters

How it ends

method × round

Each cell is the model's chance the fight ends that way, in that round. Brighter = more likely; hover for the exact number.

R1
R2
R3
Royval KO
6%
2%
1%
Royval SUB
12%
5%
3%
Kavanagh KO
6%
3%
1%
Kavanagh SUB
8%
3%
2%
Royval decGoes to decision 48%Kavanagh dec

When it ends

still fighting %

The line is the model's chance the fight is still going after each round — where it drops, finishes cluster.

0255075100After R1: 68% still fightingR1After R2: 55% still fightingR2After R3: 48% still fightingR3
after R1 68% liveafter R2 55% liveafter R3 48% livereaches decision 48%

Tale of the tape

bar = magnitude · bold = edge
71"
Reach
67"
33
Age
27
5.54
Strikes / min
4.13
41%
Strike acc
48%
43%
Strike def
56%
45%
TD def
94%
0.33
Knockdowns / 15m
0.36

Official plays

tracked & graded in the ledger
● MODEL EDGEBrandon Royval to win+190+7pp edge@ soft US bookmoved since capture

The market price hasn't caught up to our calibrated fair price on this side. Price has moved since capture — re-check before acting.

Model board

reference only — not bets, not in the track record
Opening price → now · our fair price
Brandon Royvalopen +170▼3.1now +195fair -120
Lone'er Kavanaghopen -200▲1.6now -215fair +120
MarketBestEdge
▸Moneyline(2)●
●Brandon Royval to win+195+7
Lone'er Kavanagh to win-215-20.8
▸Round totals(3)
Over 0.5 rounds-1800~+5.3
Over 2.5 rounds-174-7.8
Over 1.5 rounds-350~-10.4
▸By KO/TKO(6)
Brandon Royval by KO/TKO+500~+12
Brandon Royval by KO/TKO+280~+8.9
Brandon Royval by KO/TKO+1400~+2.6
Lone'er Kavanagh by KO/TKO+200~-9.5
Lone'er Kavanagh by KO/TKO+240~-19.2
Lone'er Kavanagh by KO/TKO-190~-33.7
▸By submission(4)
Brandon Royval by Sub+225~+14.5
Lone'er Kavanagh by Sub+2000~+8.9
Brandon Royval by Sub+700~+6.8
Lone'er Kavanagh by Sub+130~-8.3
▸By decision(2)
Brandon Royval by Decision+400~+5.9
Lone'er Kavanagh by Decision+150~-18.4
▸Round of victory(6)
Brandon Royval in R1+1300~+10.6
Brandon Royval in R2+1500~+0.8
Lone'er Kavanagh in R1+575~0
Brandon Royval in R3+2000~-1
Lone'er Kavanagh in R2+850~-4.6
Lone'er Kavanagh in R3+1100~-5.2
▸Method × round(12)
Brandon Royval Sub R1+2000~+7.2
Lone'er Kavanagh Sub R1+4000~+6
Brandon Royval KO R1+4000~+3.3
Lone'er Kavanagh Sub R2+5000~+1.4
Brandon Royval Sub R2+2250~+0.5
Lone'er Kavanagh Sub R3+6600~+0.3
Brandon Royval KO R2+4000~-0.1
Brandon Royval KO R3+5000~-0.7
Brandon Royval Sub R3+3000~-0.7
Lone'er Kavanagh KO R3+1300~-5.8
Lone'er Kavanagh KO R1+650~-7
Lone'er Kavanagh KO R2+950~-7
▸Inside distance(2)
Brandon Royval inside distance+525~+12.6
Lone'er Kavanagh inside distance+210~-8.4

Moneyline edges are the model's calibrated edge vs the no-vig sharp fair. Prop edges marked ~ have no sharp line (thin / one-book) — treat as unverified. Only the official plays above are bets; everything else here is model reference. Prices as of Jul 6, 11:43 UTC.

Track record+14.2% ROI644 bets · backtested 2023–2026full ledger →
Style data is snapshotted before fight night, so the model never sees results that hadn't happened yet. Betting edges are measured against the fair price, not the sticker odds — see the methodology and glossary.