KOKNOCKOUT MMA← UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista — prediction, odds & how it ends

Bantamweight · 3R
Red corner
Sandhagen
“The Sandman”
18-6 · 71" · Switch
LDECWKOLDECWDECWDEC
VS
Blue corner
Bautista
17-3 · 69" · Switch
WSUBLDECWDECWDECWDEC
Win probabilitymodel prediction
43%
57%
Sandhagen -140+128 Bautista

odds, translated: -140 ≈ 58% implied chance · +128 ≈ 44%

Most likely outcome
Bautista · Decision
Finish vs decision
43% finish·57% goes the distance

Style clash

career averages vs division benchmark

Bigger polygon = more of that trait. Career averages (not opponent-adjusted); the date is each fighter's last bout.

OutputAccuracyDefenseChinKO threatTakedownsSub threatCardioSandhagen · Output: 4.86Sandhagen · Accuracy: 0.45Sandhagen · Defense: 0.56Sandhagen · Chin: 0.06Sandhagen · KO threat: 0.29Sandhagen · Takedowns: 1.15Sandhagen · Sub threat: 0.20Sandhagen · Cardio: 0.95Bautista · Output: 5.30Bautista · Accuracy: 0.48Bautista · Defense: 0.54Bautista · Chin: 0.19Bautista · KO threat: 0.23Bautista · Takedowns: 1.91Bautista · Sub threat: 0.80Bautista · Cardio: 2.05
Sandhagenas of 2025-10
Bautistaas of 2026-02
Division avg · Bantamweight258 fighters

How it ends

method × round

Each cell is the model's chance the fight ends that way, in that round. Brighter = more likely; hover for the exact number.

R1
R2
R3
Sandhagen KO
5%
6%
3%
Sandhagen SUB
2%
2%
Bautista KO
4%
5%
3%
Bautista SUB
5%
5%
3%
Sandhagen decGoes to decision 57%Bautista dec

When it ends

still fighting %

The line is the model's chance the fight is still going after each round — where it drops, finishes cluster.

0255075100After R1: 85% still fightingR1After R2: 68% still fightingR2After R3: 59% still fightingR3
after R1 85% liveafter R2 68% liveafter R3 59% livereaches decision 57%

Tale of the tape

bar = magnitude · bold = edge
71"
Reach
69"
34
Age
33
4.86
Strikes / min
5.30
45%
Strike acc
48%
56%
Strike def
54%
56%
TD def
55%
0.29
Knockdowns / 15m
0.23

Official plays

tracked & graded in the ledger
● MODEL EDGEMario Bautista to win+126+3.6pp edge@ soft US bookmoved since capture

The market price hasn't caught up to our calibrated fair price on this side. Price has moved since capture — re-check before acting.

Model board

reference only — not bets, not in the track record
Opening price → now · our fair price
Cory Sandhagenopen -200▼8.3now -140fair +135
Mario Bautistaopen +170▲6.8now +128fair -135
MarketBestEdge
▸Moneyline(2)●
●Mario Bautista to win+128+3.6
Cory Sandhagen to win-140-13.6
▸Round totals(3)
Over 0.5 rounds-2800~+3.4
Over 1.5 rounds-485~+1.4
Over 2.5 rounds-255-1.8
▸By KO/TKO(6)
Mario Bautista by KO/TKO+750~+12.7
Mario Bautista by KO/TKO+1800~+6.1
Mario Bautista by KO/TKO+160~+5.9
Cory Sandhagen by KO/TKO+380~-6.9
Cory Sandhagen by KO/TKO+265~-9.3
Cory Sandhagen by KO/TKO-115~-15.1
▸By submission(4)
Mario Bautista by Sub+1100~+4.7
Mario Bautista by Sub+140~+4.4
Cory Sandhagen by Sub+1100~-4.1
Cory Sandhagen by Sub+135~-13.8
▸By decision(2)
Mario Bautista by Decision+195~-0.9
Cory Sandhagen by Decision+180~-11.3
▸Round of victory(6)
Mario Bautista in R2+2200~+5.4
Mario Bautista in R1+1750~+3.6
Mario Bautista in R3+3000~+2.4
Cory Sandhagen in R2+1000~-1.9
Cory Sandhagen in R3+1400~-2.5
Cory Sandhagen in R1+700~-5.8
▸Method × round(12)
Mario Bautista KO R2+5000~+2.6
Mario Bautista Sub R2+3300~+2.3
Mario Bautista KO R1+4000~+1.8
Mario Bautista KO R3+6000~+1
Mario Bautista Sub R1+2500~+1
Mario Bautista Sub R3+4500~+0.9
Cory Sandhagen Sub R3+5000~-1
Cory Sandhagen Sub R2+3300~-1.2
Cory Sandhagen KO R2+1300~-1.6
Cory Sandhagen KO R3+1900~-1.8
Cory Sandhagen Sub R1+2500~-2.3
Cory Sandhagen KO R1+900~-4.9
▸Inside distance(1)
Mario Bautista inside distance+750~+12.7

Moneyline edges are the model's calibrated edge vs the no-vig sharp fair. Prop edges marked ~ have no sharp line (thin / one-book) — treat as unverified. Only the official plays above are bets; everything else here is model reference. Prices as of Jul 6, 11:43 UTC.

Track record+14.2% ROI644 bets · backtested 2023–2026full ledger →
Style data is snapshotted before fight night, so the model never sees results that hadn't happened yet. Betting edges are measured against the fair price, not the sticker odds — see the methodology and glossary.