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Benoit Saint-Denis vs Paddy Pimblett — prediction, odds & how it ends

Lightweight · 3R
Red corner
Saint-Denis
“God of War”
16-3 · 73" · Southpaw
no UFC bouts
VS
Blue corner
Pimblett
“Paddy”
23-3 · 73" · Orthodox
no UFC bouts
Win probabilitymodel prediction
66%
34%
Saint-Denis -151+131 Pimblett

odds, translated: -151 ≈ 60% implied chance · +131 ≈ 43%

Most likely outcome
Saint-Denis · Decision
Finish vs decision
59% finish·41% goes the distance

Style clash

career averages vs division benchmark

Bigger polygon = more of that trait. Career averages (not opponent-adjusted); the date is each fighter's last bout.

OutputAccuracyDefenseChinKO threatTakedownsSub threatCardioSaint-Denis · Output: 5.62Saint-Denis · Accuracy: 0.58Saint-Denis · Defense: 0.42Saint-Denis · Chin: 0.14Saint-Denis · KO threat: 0.98Saint-Denis · Takedowns: 4.19Saint-Denis · Sub threat: 1.80Saint-Denis · Cardio: 1.22Pimblett · Output: 5.49Pimblett · Accuracy: 0.52Pimblett · Defense: 0.42Pimblett · Chin: 0.32Pimblett · KO threat: 0.48Pimblett · Takedowns: 0.69Pimblett · Sub threat: 1.20Pimblett · Cardio: 0.68
Saint-Denisas of 2026-01
Pimblettas of 2026-01
Division avg · Lightweight437 fighters

How it ends

method × round

Each cell is the model's chance the fight ends that way, in that round. Brighter = more likely; hover for the exact number.

R1
R2
R3
Saint-Denis KO
9%
13%
2%
Saint-Denis SUB
6%
8%
1%
Pimblett KO
6%
9%
1%
Pimblett SUB
1%
2%
Saint-Denis decGoes to decision 41%Pimblett dec

When it ends

still fighting %

The line is the model's chance the fight is still going after each round — where it drops, finishes cluster.

0255075100After R1: 78% still fightingR1After R2: 47% still fightingR2After R3: 42% still fightingR3
after R1 78% liveafter R2 47% liveafter R3 42% livereaches decision 41%

Tale of the tape

bar = magnitude · bold = edge
73"
Reach
73"
30
Age
31
5.62
Strikes / min
5.49
58%
Strike acc
52%
42%
Strike def
42%
72%
TD def
44%
0.98
Knockdowns / 15m
0.48

Official plays

tracked & graded in the ledger
No official play — the model passes this fight.

Model board

reference only — not bets, not in the track record
Opening price → now · our fair price
Benoit Saint-Denisopen -151▼0now -151fair -193
Paddy Pimblettopen +131▼0now +131fair +193
MarketBestEdge
▸Moneyline(2)
Benoit Saint-Denis to win-151—
Paddy Pimblett to win+131—

Moneyline edges are the model's calibrated edge vs the no-vig sharp fair. Prop edges marked ~ have no sharp line (thin / one-book) — treat as unverified. Only the official plays above are bets; everything else here is model reference. Prices as of Jul 6, 11:43 UTC.

Track record+14.2% ROI644 bets · backtested 2023–2026full ledger →
Style data is snapshotted before fight night, so the model never sees results that hadn't happened yet. Betting edges are measured against the fair price, not the sticker odds — see the methodology and glossary.