KOKNOCKOUT MMA
← UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2›

Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway — prediction, odds & how it ends

Lightweight · Main event · 5R
Red corner
McGregor
“Notorious”
22-6 · 73" · Southpaw
LKOLKOWKOLSUBWKO
VS
Blue corner
Holloway
“Blessed”
27-9 · 70" · Orthodox
LDECWDECLKOWKOWKO
Win probabilitymodel prediction
29%
71%
McGregor +194-215 Holloway

odds, translated: +194 ≈ 34% implied chance · -215 ≈ 68%

Most likely outcome
Holloway · Decision
Finish vs decision
59% finish·41% goes the distance
The call

Our model picks Holloway by decision. The model gives Holloway 71%.

The market

The current price implies roughly 68%. The model is higher on Holloway than the market is.

The danger

McGregor's power is real — that knockdown rate is the cleanest way this forecast gets broken.

The decision

Official play on this fight — the exact market and captured price are on the board below.

Style clash

career averages vs division benchmark

Bigger polygon = more of that trait. Career averages (not opponent-adjusted); the date is each fighter's last bout.

OutputAccuracyDefenseChinKO threatTakedownsSub threatCardioMcGregor · Output: 5.32McGregor · Accuracy: 0.49McGregor · Defense: 0.54McGregor · Chin: 0.11McGregor · KO threat: 1.73McGregor · Takedowns: 0.67McGregor · Sub threat: 0.10McGregor · Cardio: 1.22Holloway · Output: 6.91Holloway · Accuracy: 0.48Holloway · Defense: 0.58Holloway · Chin: 0.05Holloway · KO threat: 0.35Holloway · Takedowns: 0.23Holloway · Sub threat: 0.30Holloway · Cardio: 1.64
McGregoras of 2021-07⚠ stale
Hollowayas of 2026-03
Division avg · Lightweight437 fighters

How it ends

method × round

Each cell is the model's chance the fight ends that way, in that round. Brighter = more likely; hover for the exact number.

R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
McGregor KO
4%
4%
2%
1%
1%
McGregor SUB
1%
2%
Holloway KO
11%
13%
5%
4%
4%
Holloway SUB
1%
2%
McGregor decGoes to decision 41%Holloway dec

When it ends

still fighting %

The line is the model's chance the fight is still going after each round — where it drops, finishes cluster.

0255075100After R1: 81% still fightingR1After R2: 57% still fightingR2After R3: 47% still fightingR3After R4: 47% still fightingR4After R5: 47% still fightingR5
after R1 81% liveafter R2 57% liveafter R3 47% liveafter R4 47% liveafter R5 47% livereaches decision 41%

Tale of the tape

bar = magnitude · bold = edge
73"
Reach
70"
37
Age
34
5.32
Strikes / min
6.91
49%
Strike acc
48%
54%
Strike def
58%
66%
TD def
81%
1.73
Knockdowns / 15m
0.35

Official plays

tracked & graded in the ledger

Two checks, two claims: public line history can verify the quoted price existed on the operator-recorded capture day; the hash published before the first fight proves the complete card was fixed before the fights.

● OFFICIAL PLAYUnder 2.5 rounds+145+10.02pp edge@ soft US bookcaptured Wed, Jul 1

Scheduled for today's pre-fight commitment; graded in the public ledger after.

Model board

reference only — not bets, not in the track record
Opening price → now · our fair price
Conor McGregoropen +420▲14.8now +194fair +244
Max Hollowayopen -550▼16.4now -215fair -244
MarketBestEdge
▸Moneyline(2)
Max Holloway to win-215+0.2
Conor McGregor to win+194-4.9
▸Round totals(5)
Over 4.5 rounds+265~+19.2
Over 3.5 rounds+155~+14.5
Over 1.5 rounds-230~+13.4
Over 2.5 rounds+100+13.2
Over 0.5 rounds-1200~+7.7
▸By KO/TKO(12)
Max Holloway by KO/TKO+2200~+32.7
Max Holloway by KO/TKO+2000~+32.3
Max Holloway by KO/TKO+650~+23.7
Conor McGregor by KO/TKO+4000~+10
Conor McGregor by KO/TKO+2800~+9
Conor McGregor by KO/TKO+2500~+8.6
Max Holloway by KO/TKO-185~+1
Conor McGregor by KO/TKO+200~-9
Conor McGregor by KO/TKO+240~-12.2
Conor McGregor by KO/TKO+270-13.7
Max Holloway by KO/TKO-115-15
Max Holloway by KO/TKO-140~-16.3
▸By submission(4)
Max Holloway by Sub+410~+14.3
Conor McGregor by Sub+850~+6.1
Conor McGregor by Sub+2500+0.6
Max Holloway by Sub+1400-4.8
▸By decision(2)
Max Holloway by Decision+650+15.3
Conor McGregor by Decision+1200+3.6
▸Round of victory(10)
Max Holloway in R2+700~+2.3
Conor McGregor in R2+2000~+1.3
Conor McGregor in R5+5000~-0.3
Conor McGregor in R4+4000~-0.4
Conor McGregor in R3+2500~-1.4
Conor McGregor in R1+1400~-1.7
Max Holloway in R1+600~-2.3
Max Holloway in R5+1100~-4.2
Max Holloway in R4+850~-5.5
Max Holloway in R3+750~-5.8
▸Method × round(20)
Max Holloway KO R2+800~+2
Conor McGregor Sub R2+8000~+0.5
Max Holloway Sub R2+6000~+0.1
Conor McGregor Sub R4+20000~+0.1
Conor McGregor Sub R5+30000~+0.1
Conor McGregor Sub R3+13000~-0.1
Max Holloway Sub R1+5000~-0.5
Conor McGregor Sub R1+5000~-0.6
Conor McGregor KO R5+5000~-0.7
Max Holloway Sub R5+8000~-0.7
Max Holloway Sub R3+6000~-0.9
Max Holloway Sub R4+6500~-0.9
Conor McGregor KO R4+3300~-1.5
Conor McGregor KO R2+1500~-1.9
Conor McGregor KO R3+2250~-2.5
Max Holloway KO R1+650~-2.7
Max Holloway KO R5+1200~-4
Max Holloway KO R4+950~-5.1
Max Holloway KO R3+800~-5.8
Conor McGregor KO R1+650~-9.8
▸Inside distance(2)
Conor McGregor inside distance+250-12.1
Max Holloway inside distance-139-14.2

Moneyline edges are the model's calibrated edge vs the no-vig sharp fair. Prop edges marked ~ have no sharp line (thin / one-book) — treat as unverified. Only the official plays above are bets; everything else here is model reference. Prices as of Jul 10, 11:00 UTC.

Track record+26% ROI1,902 bets · backtested 2023–2026full ledger →

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Style data is snapshotted before fight night, so the model never sees results that hadn't happened yet. Betting edges are measured against the fair price, not the sticker odds — see the methodology and glossary.