KOKNOCKOUT MMA← UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway — prediction, odds & how it ends

Lightweight · Main event · 5R
Red corner
McGregor
“Notorious”
22-6 · 73" · Southpaw
LKOLKOWKOLSUBWKO
VS
Blue corner
Holloway
“Blessed”
27-9 · 70" · Orthodox
LDECWDECLKOWKOWKO
Win probabilitymodel prediction
29%
71%
McGregor +195-210 Holloway

odds, translated: +195 ≈ 34% implied chance · -210 ≈ 68%

Most likely outcome
Holloway · Decision
Finish vs decision
63% finish·37% goes the distance

Style clash

career averages vs division benchmark

Bigger polygon = more of that trait. Career averages (not opponent-adjusted); the date is each fighter's last bout.

OutputAccuracyDefenseChinKO threatTakedownsSub threatCardioMcGregor · Output: 5.32McGregor · Accuracy: 0.49McGregor · Defense: 0.54McGregor · Chin: 0.11McGregor · KO threat: 1.73McGregor · Takedowns: 0.67McGregor · Sub threat: 0.10McGregor · Cardio: 1.22Holloway · Output: 6.91Holloway · Accuracy: 0.48Holloway · Defense: 0.58Holloway · Chin: 0.05Holloway · KO threat: 0.35Holloway · Takedowns: 0.23Holloway · Sub threat: 0.30Holloway · Cardio: 1.64
McGregoras of 2021-07⚠ stale
Hollowayas of 2026-03
Division avg · Lightweight437 fighters

How it ends

method × round

Each cell is the model's chance the fight ends that way, in that round. Brighter = more likely; hover for the exact number.

R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
McGregor KO
4%
4%
2%
2%
1%
McGregor SUB
2%
2%
Holloway KO
11%
13%
7%
5%
4%
Holloway SUB
1%
2%
McGregor decGoes to decision 37%Holloway dec

When it ends

still fighting %

The line is the model's chance the fight is still going after each round — where it drops, finishes cluster.

0255075100After R1: 79% still fightingR1After R2: 55% still fightingR2After R3: 42% still fightingR3After R4: 42% still fightingR4After R5: 42% still fightingR5
after R1 79% liveafter R2 55% liveafter R3 42% liveafter R4 42% liveafter R5 42% livereaches decision 37%

Tale of the tape

bar = magnitude · bold = edge
73"
Reach
70"
37
Age
34
5.32
Strikes / min
6.91
49%
Strike acc
48%
54%
Strike def
58%
66%
TD def
81%
1.73
Knockdowns / 15m
0.35

Official plays

tracked & graded in the ledger
◷ OPENER PLAYUnder 2.5 rounds+145+11.36pp vs open@ soft US book

The opening price hasn't caught up to the fair price — a timing play, and it decays as the line moves.

16 correlated legs suppressed — one play per fight.⚠ cross-direction contradiction

Model board

reference only — not bets, not in the track record
Opening price → now · our fair price
Conor McGregoropen +420▲14.7now +195fair +241
Max Hollowayopen -550▼16.9now -210fair -241
MarketBestEdge
▸Moneyline(2)
Max Holloway to win-2100
Conor McGregor to win+195-3.4
▸Round totals(5)
Over 4.5 rounds+265~+15.9
Over 2.5 rounds+104+14
Over 1.5 rounds-220~+13.9
Over 3.5 rounds+155~+12.4
Over 0.5 rounds-1200~+7.7
▸By KO/TKO(6)
Max Holloway by KO/TKO-185~+0.4
Conor McGregor by KO/TKO+225~-7.1
Conor McGregor by KO/TKO+240~-10.9
Max Holloway by KO/TKO-110~-13.2
Max Holloway by KO/TKO-140~-13.8
Conor McGregor by KO/TKO+270~-14.2
▸By submission(4)
Max Holloway by Sub+380~+10.7
Conor McGregor by Sub+850~+5.9
Conor McGregor by Sub+2500~+1.8
Max Holloway by Sub+1300~-1.7
▸By decision(2)
Max Holloway by Decision+600~+11.8
Conor McGregor by Decision+1200~+3.1
▸Round of victory(10)
Max Holloway in R2+750~+2.5
Conor McGregor in R2+2000~+1.2
Conor McGregor in R4+4000~0
Conor McGregor in R5+5000~-0.1
Conor McGregor in R3+2500~-0.7
Conor McGregor in R1+1400~-1.6
Max Holloway in R1+550~-3.1
Max Holloway in R3+800~-3.4
Max Holloway in R5+1100~-3.9
Max Holloway in R4+850~-4.7
▸Method × round(20)
Max Holloway KO R2+850~+2
Conor McGregor Sub R2+10000~+0.8
Max Holloway Sub R2+6600~+0.2
Conor McGregor Sub R3+13000~+0.2
Conor McGregor Sub R4+20000~+0.2
Conor McGregor Sub R5+30000~+0.2
Conor McGregor Sub R1+6600~+0.1
Conor McGregor KO R5+5500~-0.5
Max Holloway Sub R1+5000~-0.5
Max Holloway Sub R3+6500~-0.6
Max Holloway Sub R5+8000~-0.7
Max Holloway Sub R4+6500~-0.8
Conor McGregor KO R4+3500~-1.1
Conor McGregor KO R3+2250~-2
Conor McGregor KO R2+1500~-2.1
Max Holloway KO R3+900~-3.2
Max Holloway KO R5+1300~-3.2
Max Holloway KO R1+600~-3.5
Max Holloway KO R4+1000~-3.9
Conor McGregor KO R1+650~-9.8
▸Inside distance(2)
Conor McGregor inside distance+250~-10.1
Max Holloway inside distance-135~-12.9

Moneyline edges are the model's calibrated edge vs the no-vig sharp fair. Prop edges marked ~ have no sharp line (thin / one-book) — treat as unverified. Only the official plays above are bets; everything else here is model reference. Prices as of Jul 6, 11:43 UTC.

Track record+14.2% ROI644 bets · backtested 2023–2026full ledger →
Style data is snapshotted before fight night, so the model never sees results that hadn't happened yet. Betting edges are measured against the fair price, not the sticker odds — see the methodology and glossary.