odds, translated: -1800 ≈ 95% implied chance · +1200 ≈ 8%
Limited UFC tape on Steveson — this prediction leans on priors and the market, not fight-by-fight history. Read it with lower confidence.
Our model picks Steveson by KO/TKO. The model gives Steveson 83%.
The current price implies roughly 95%. The market likes Steveson even more than the model does.
Ellison still wins this 17% of the time in the model, and with a 67% chance the fight ends inside the distance, one clean sequence can beat the forecast.
Official play on this fight — the exact market and captured price are on the board below.
Bigger polygon = more of that trait. Career averages (not opponent-adjusted); the date is each fighter's last bout.
Each cell is the model's chance the fight ends that way, in that round. Brighter = more likely; hover for the exact number.
The line is the model's chance the fight is still going after each round — where it drops, finishes cluster.
Two checks, two claims: public line history can verify the quoted price existed on the operator-recorded capture day; the hash published before the first fight proves the complete card was fixed before the fights.
Scheduled for today's pre-fight commitment; graded in the public ledger after.
Moneyline edges are the model's calibrated edge vs the no-vig sharp fair. Prop edges marked ~ have no sharp line (thin / one-book) — treat as unverified. Only the official plays above are bets; everything else here is model reference. Prices as of Jul 10, 11:00 UTC.