KOKNOCKOUT MMA← UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison — prediction, odds & how it ends

Heavyweight · 3R
Red corner
Steveson
3-0 · — · —
no UFC bouts
VS
Blue corner
Ellison
“Snack Panther”
5-2 · 78" · Orthodox
LKO
Win probabilitylow datamodel prediction
82%
18%
Steveson -2000+1300 Ellison

odds, translated: -2000 ≈ 95% implied chance · +1300 ≈ 7%

Limited UFC tape on Steveson — this prediction leans on priors and the market, not fight-by-fight history. Read it with lower confidence.

Most likely outcome
Steveson · KO/TKO · R1
Finish vs decision
67% finish·33% goes the distance

Style clash

career averages vs division benchmark

Bigger polygon = more of that trait. Career averages (not opponent-adjusted); the date is each fighter's last bout.

OutputAccuracyDefenseChinKO threatTakedownsSub threatCardioEllison · Output: 1.57Ellison · Accuracy: 0.33Ellison · Defense: 0.40Ellison · Chin: 0.00Ellison · KO threat: 0.00Ellison · Takedowns: 0.00Ellison · Sub threat: 0.00Ellison · Cardio: 0.00
Stevesondebut · no UFC tape
Ellisonas of 2025-09
Division avg · Heavyweight258 fighters

How it ends

method × round

Each cell is the model's chance the fight ends that way, in that round. Brighter = more likely; hover for the exact number.

R1
R2
R3
Steveson KO
28%
6%
5%
Steveson SUB
12%
3%
2%
Ellison KO
2%
Ellison SUB
6%
1%
1%
Steveson decGoes to decision 33%Ellison dec

When it ends

still fighting %

The line is the model's chance the fight is still going after each round — where it drops, finishes cluster.

0255075100After R1: 52% still fightingR1After R2: 42% still fightingR2After R3: 35% still fightingR3
after R1 52% liveafter R2 42% liveafter R3 35% livereaches decision 33%

Tale of the tape

bar = magnitude · bold = edge
—
Reach
78"
—
Age
29
—
Strikes / min
1.57
—
Strike acc
33%
—
Strike def
40%
—
TD def
—
—
Knockdowns / 15m
—

Official plays

tracked & graded in the ledger
No official play — the model passes this fight.

Model board

reference only — not bets, not in the track record
Opening price → now · our fair price
Gable Stevesonopen -1800▲0.5now -2000fair -460
Elisha Ellisonopen +900▼2.9now +1300fair +460
MarketBestEdge
▸Moneyline(2)
Elisha Ellison to win+1300+6
Gable Steveson to win-2000-10.9
▸Round totals(3)
Over 0.5 rounds-175~+36.4
Over 1.5 rounds+400+31.9
Over 2.5 rounds+750~+28.9
▸By KO/TKO(6)
Elisha Ellison by KO/TKO+1800~+6.7
Elisha Ellison by KO/TKO+1400~+2.3
Elisha Ellison by KO/TKO+2500~-0.8
Gable Steveson by KO/TKO-400~-14.2
Gable Steveson by KO/TKO-300~-36.2
Gable Steveson by KO/TKO-1600~-39
▸By submission(4)
Elisha Ellison by Sub+2200~+10.4
Gable Steveson by Sub+200~+10.1
Elisha Ellison by Sub+5000~+6.9
Gable Steveson by Sub+240~-13
▸By decision(2)
Gable Steveson by Decision+1800~+21.7
Elisha Ellison by Decision+4000~+3.4
▸Round of victory(6)
Elisha Ellison in R1+2500~+4.9
Elisha Ellison in R3+10000~+0.4
Elisha Ellison in R2+6000~+0.2
Gable Steveson in R3+1400~-0.3
Gable Steveson in R2+500~-8
Gable Steveson in R1-300~-34.9
▸Method × round(12)
Elisha Ellison Sub R1+6500~+4.9
Elisha Ellison Sub R2+15000~+0.7
Elisha Ellison Sub R3+25000~+0.6
Gable Steveson Sub R3+4500~-0.3
Elisha Ellison KO R1+3500~-0.5
Elisha Ellison KO R3+12000~-0.5
Elisha Ellison KO R2+8000~-0.8
Gable Steveson KO R3+1800~-0.8
Gable Steveson Sub R2+1800~-2.7
Gable Steveson KO R2+650~-7.3
Gable Steveson Sub R1+275~-14.7
Gable Steveson KO R1-225~-41
▸Inside distance(2)
Elisha Ellison inside distance+1800~+6.7
Gable Steveson inside distance-1600~-39

Moneyline edges are the model's calibrated edge vs the no-vig sharp fair. Prop edges marked ~ have no sharp line (thin / one-book) — treat as unverified. Only the official plays above are bets; everything else here is model reference. Prices as of Jul 6, 11:43 UTC.

Track record+14.2% ROI644 bets · backtested 2023–2026full ledger →
Style data is snapshotted before fight night, so the model never sees results that hadn't happened yet. Betting edges are measured against the fair price, not the sticker odds — see the methodology and glossary.