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Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez — prediction, odds & how it ends

Bantamweight · 3R
Red corner
Garbrandt
“No Love”
15-7 · 65.5" · Orthodox
WDECLDECLSUBWKOWDEC
VS
Blue corner
Yanez
17-6-1 · 70.5" · Orthodox
LDECWKOLKOLKOWKO
Win probabilitymodel prediction
14%
86%
Garbrandt +340-403 Yanez

odds, translated: +340 ≈ 23% implied chance · -403 ≈ 80%

Most likely outcome
Yanez · Decision
Finish vs decision
54% finish·46% goes the distance

Style clash

career averages vs division benchmark

Bigger polygon = more of that trait. Career averages (not opponent-adjusted); the date is each fighter's last bout.

OutputAccuracyDefenseChinKO threatTakedownsSub threatCardioGarbrandt · Output: 2.79Garbrandt · Accuracy: 0.40Garbrandt · Defense: 0.58Garbrandt · Chin: 0.55Garbrandt · KO threat: 1.03Garbrandt · Takedowns: 0.85Garbrandt · Sub threat: 0.00Garbrandt · Cardio: 1.06Yanez · Output: 5.96Yanez · Accuracy: 0.41Yanez · Defense: 0.56Yanez · Chin: 0.45Yanez · KO threat: 1.54Yanez · Takedowns: 0.00Yanez · Sub threat: 0.00Yanez · Cardio: 0.83
Garbrandtas of 2026-03
Yanezas of 2026-03
Division avg · Bantamweight258 fighters

How it ends

method × round

Each cell is the model's chance the fight ends that way, in that round. Brighter = more likely; hover for the exact number.

R1
R2
R3
Garbrandt KO
3%
2%
Garbrandt SUB
Yanez KO
23%
15%
5%
Yanez SUB
2%
1%
Garbrandt decGoes to decision 46%Yanez dec

When it ends

still fighting %

The line is the model's chance the fight is still going after each round — where it drops, finishes cluster.

0255075100After R1: 73% still fightingR1After R2: 56% still fightingR2After R3: 49% still fightingR3
after R1 73% liveafter R2 56% liveafter R3 49% livereaches decision 46%

Tale of the tape

bar = magnitude · bold = edge
66"
Reach
71"
35
Age
32
2.79
Strikes / min
5.96
40%
Strike acc
41%
58%
Strike def
56%
81%
TD def
75%
1.03
Knockdowns / 15m
1.54

Official plays

tracked & graded in the ledger
● MODEL EDGEAdrian Yanez to win-400+4.9pp edge@ offshore bookmoved since capture

The market price hasn't caught up to our calibrated fair price on this side. Price has moved since capture — re-check before acting.

Model board

reference only — not bets, not in the track record
Opening price → now · our fair price
Cody Garbrandtopen +210▼9.5now +340fair +640
Adrian Yanezopen -250▲8.7now -403fair -640
MarketBestEdge
▸Moneyline(2)●
●Adrian Yanez to win-403+4.9
Cody Garbrandt to win+340-8.5
▸Round totals(3)
Over 0.5 rounds-900~+10
Over 1.5 rounds-170+9.9
Over 2.5 rounds-1329~-40.5
▸By KO/TKO(6)
Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO-350~+4.6
Cody Garbrandt by KO/TKO+800~-5.1
Cody Garbrandt by KO/TKO+700~-5.2
Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO-115~-6.8
Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO-110~-9.8
Cody Garbrandt by KO/TKO+330~-11
▸By submission(4)
Adrian Yanez by Sub+175~+7.6
Adrian Yanez by Sub+2000~-0.7
Cody Garbrandt by Sub+3000~-1.9
Cody Garbrandt by Sub+550~-7.9
▸By decision(2)
Adrian Yanez by Decision+200~+6.5
Cody Garbrandt by Decision+650~-7.1
▸Round of victory(6)
Cody Garbrandt in R2+2000~-2.3
Adrian Yanez in R2+450~-2.3
Cody Garbrandt in R1+1400~-2.7
Cody Garbrandt in R3+2500~-3
Adrian Yanez in R1+250~-3.4
Adrian Yanez in R3+650~-7.8
▸Method × round(12)
Adrian Yanez Sub R1+4000~-0.2
Adrian Yanez Sub R2+5000~-0.6
Cody Garbrandt Sub R2+7500~-0.9
Cody Garbrandt Sub R3+9000~-0.9
Adrian Yanez Sub R3+6500~-1
Cody Garbrandt Sub R1+5500~-1.1
Adrian Yanez KO R2+500~-2.1
Cody Garbrandt KO R2+2200~-2.3
Cody Garbrandt KO R1+1600~-2.6
Cody Garbrandt KO R3+2800~-2.7
Adrian Yanez KO R1+275~-3.7
Adrian Yanez KO R3+700~-7.4
▸Inside distance(2)
Cody Garbrandt inside distance+700~-5.2
Adrian Yanez inside distance-115~-6.8

Moneyline edges are the model's calibrated edge vs the no-vig sharp fair. Prop edges marked ~ have no sharp line (thin / one-book) — treat as unverified. Only the official plays above are bets; everything else here is model reference. Prices as of Jul 6, 11:43 UTC.

Track record+14.2% ROI644 bets · backtested 2023–2026full ledger →
Style data is snapshotted before fight night, so the model never sees results that hadn't happened yet. Betting edges are measured against the fair price, not the sticker odds — see the methodology and glossary.