odds, translated: -282 ≈ 74% implied chance · +242 ≈ 29%
Limited UFC tape on Kamaka — this prediction leans on priors and the market, not fight-by-fight history. Read it with lower confidence.
Bigger polygon = more of that trait. Career averages (not opponent-adjusted); the date is each fighter's last bout.
Each cell is the model's chance the fight ends that way, in that round. Brighter = more likely; hover for the exact number.
The line is the model's chance the fight is still going after each round — where it drops, finishes cluster.
The opening price hasn't caught up to the fair price — a timing play, and it decays as the line moves.
Moneyline edges are the model's calibrated edge vs the no-vig sharp fair. Prop edges marked ~ have no sharp line (thin / one-book) — treat as unverified. Only the official plays above are bets; everything else here is model reference. Prices as of Jul 6, 11:43 UTC.