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Tracy Cortez vs Wang Cong — prediction, odds & how it ends

Women's Flyweight · 3R
Red corner
Cortez
12-3 · 67" · Orthodox
no UFC bouts
VS
Blue corner
Cong
“The Joker”
9-1 · 70.1" · Orthodox
no UFC bouts
Win probabilitymodel prediction
66%
34%
Cortez -101-119 Cong

odds, translated: -101 ≈ 50% implied chance · -119 ≈ 54%

Most likely outcome
Cortez · Decision
Finish vs decision
43% finish·57% goes the distance
The call

Our model picks Cortez by decision. The model gives Cortez 66%.

The market

The current price implies roughly 50%. The model is higher on Cortez than the market is.

The danger

Cong still wins this 34% of the time in the model, and with a 43% chance the fight ends inside the distance, one clean sequence can beat the forecast.

The decision

Model pick, no official bet. A prediction is not automatically a bet; the price didn't clear the rules on this one.

Style clash

career averages vs division benchmark

Bigger polygon = more of that trait. Career averages (not opponent-adjusted); the date is each fighter's last bout.

OutputAccuracyDefenseChinKO threatTakedownsSub threatCardioCortez · Output: 3.86Cortez · Accuracy: 0.48Cortez · Defense: 0.57Cortez · Chin: 0.24Cortez · KO threat: 0.00Cortez · Takedowns: 2.15Cortez · Sub threat: 0.30Cortez · Cardio: 0.95Cong · Output: 6.22Cong · Accuracy: 0.56Cong · Defense: 0.63Cong · Chin: 0.00Cong · KO threat: 0.70Cong · Takedowns: 0.78Cong · Sub threat: 0.80Cong · Cardio: 0.00
Cortezas of 2025-11
Congcareer
Division avg · Women's Flyweight77 fighters

How it ends

method × round

Each cell is the model's chance the fight ends that way, in that round. Brighter = more likely; hover for the exact number.

R1
R2
R3
Cortez KO
5%
6%
2%
Cortez SUB
6%
7%
3%
Cong KO
1%
1%
Cong SUB
4%
5%
2%
Cortez decGoes to decision 57%Cong dec

When it ends

still fighting %

The line is the model's chance the fight is still going after each round — where it drops, finishes cluster.

0255075100After R1: 84% still fightingR1After R2: 65% still fightingR2After R3: 57% still fightingR3
after R1 84% liveafter R2 65% liveafter R3 57% livereaches decision 57%

Tale of the tape

bar = magnitude · bold = edge
67"
Reach
70"
32
Age
34
3.86
Strikes / min
6.22
48%
Strike acc
56%
57%
Strike def
63%
59%
TD def
84%
0.00
Knockdowns / 15m
0.70

Official plays

tracked & graded in the ledger
No official play — the model passes this fight.

Model board

reference only — not bets, not in the track record
Opening price → now · our fair price
Tracy Cortezopen +119▲4.6now -101fair -198
Wang Congopen -139▼3.8now -119fair +198
MarketBestEdge
▸Moneyline(2)
Tracy Cortez to win-101+6.4
Wang Cong to win-119—

Moneyline edges are the model's calibrated edge vs the no-vig sharp fair. Prop edges marked ~ have no sharp line (thin / one-book) — treat as unverified. Only the official plays above are bets; everything else here is model reference. Prices as of Jul 10, 11:00 UTC.

Track record+26% ROI1,902 bets · backtested 2023–2026full ledger →

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Style data is snapshotted before fight night, so the model never sees results that hadn't happened yet. Betting edges are measured against the fair price, not the sticker odds — see the methodology and glossary.