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Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida — prediction, odds & how it ends

Middleweight · 3R
Red corner
Pinas
“The Babayaga”
9-0 · 79" · Orthodox
WKO
VS
Blue corner
Almeida
“Cesinha”
7-2 · 74" · Orthodox
LDECWKOWDECLDECWKO
Win probabilitymodel prediction
73%
27%
Pinas -200+200 Almeida

odds, translated: -200 ≈ 67% implied chance · +200 ≈ 33%

Most likely outcome
Pinas · Decision
Finish vs decision
59% finish·41% goes the distance

Style clash

career averages vs division benchmark

Bigger polygon = more of that trait. Career averages (not opponent-adjusted); the date is each fighter's last bout.

OutputAccuracyDefenseChinKO threatTakedownsSub threatCardioPinas · Output: 7.50Pinas · Accuracy: 0.56Pinas · Defense: 0.56Pinas · Chin: 0.00Pinas · KO threat: 8.49Pinas · Takedowns: 0.00Pinas · Sub threat: 0.00Pinas · Cardio: 0.00Almeida · Output: 3.46Almeida · Accuracy: 0.58Almeida · Defense: 0.46Almeida · Chin: 0.50Almeida · KO threat: 0.27Almeida · Takedowns: 0.00Almeida · Sub threat: 0.20Almeida · Cardio: 0.81
Pinasas of 2026-02
Almeidaas of 2025-12
Division avg · Middleweight348 fighters

How it ends

method × round

Each cell is the model's chance the fight ends that way, in that round. Brighter = more likely; hover for the exact number.

R1
R2
R3
Pinas KO
20%
11%
5%
Pinas SUB
4%
2%
Almeida KO
7%
4%
2%
Almeida SUB
2%
Pinas decGoes to decision 41%Almeida dec

When it ends

still fighting %

The line is the model's chance the fight is still going after each round — where it drops, finishes cluster.

0255075100After R1: 69% still fightingR1After R2: 53% still fightingR2After R3: 46% still fightingR3
after R1 69% liveafter R2 53% liveafter R3 46% livereaches decision 41%

Tale of the tape

bar = magnitude · bold = edge
79"
Reach
74"
24
Age
38
7.50
Strikes / min
3.46
56%
Strike acc
58%
56%
Strike def
46%
100%
TD def
52%
8.49
Knockdowns / 15m
0.27

Official plays

tracked & graded in the ledger
◷ OPENER PLAYUnder 1.5 rounds+130+2.2pp vs open@ offshore book

The opening price hasn't caught up to the fair price — a timing play, and it decays as the line moves.

Model board

reference only — not bets, not in the track record
Opening price → now · our fair price
Damian Pinasopen -265▼5.9now -200fair -269
Cesar Almeidaopen +225▲2.6now +200fair +269
MarketBestEdge
▸Moneyline(2)
Damian Pinas to win-200+3
Cesar Almeida to win+200-8
▸Round totals(3)
Over 0.5 rounds-700~+12.5
Over 1.5 rounds-130+12.5
Over 2.5 rounds+165~+11.1
▸By KO/TKO(6)
Damian Pinas by KO/TKO-165~+4
Cesar Almeida by KO/TKO+320~-7.9
Cesar Almeida by KO/TKO+350~-9.4
Cesar Almeida by KO/TKO+195~-9.9
Damian Pinas by KO/TKO+105~-12.6
Damian Pinas by KO/TKO-125~-12.8
▸By submission(4)
Damian Pinas by Sub+275~+10.1
Cesar Almeida by Sub+600~0
Cesar Almeida by Sub+2500~-0.8
Damian Pinas by Sub+1000~-2.4
▸By decision(2)
Damian Pinas by Decision+450~+11.9
Cesar Almeida by Decision+650~-2.1
▸Round of victory(6)
Cesar Almeida in R3+1600~-3.8
Cesar Almeida in R1+650~-4.3
Damian Pinas in R2+475~-4.3
Cesar Almeida in R2+900~-5.1
Damian Pinas in R1+225~-6.5
Damian Pinas in R3+700~-7
▸Method × round(12)
Cesar Almeida Sub R1+4500~-0.4
Cesar Almeida Sub R3+10000~-0.6
Cesar Almeida Sub R2+6000~-0.7
Damian Pinas Sub R3+4500~-1.3
Damian Pinas Sub R2+2800~-1.4
Damian Pinas Sub R1+1800~-1.5
Cesar Almeida KO R3+1800~-3.6
Damian Pinas KO R2+575~-3.8
Damian Pinas KO R1+300~-4.5
Cesar Almeida KO R1+700~-5.2
Cesar Almeida KO R2+1000~-5.2
Damian Pinas KO R3+750~-7.1
▸Inside distance(2)
Cesar Almeida inside distance+320~-7.9
Damian Pinas inside distance-125~-12.8

Moneyline edges are the model's calibrated edge vs the no-vig sharp fair. Prop edges marked ~ have no sharp line (thin / one-book) — treat as unverified. Only the official plays above are bets; everything else here is model reference. Prices as of Jul 6, 11:43 UTC.

Track record+14.2% ROI644 bets · backtested 2023–2026full ledger →
Style data is snapshotted before fight night, so the model never sees results that hadn't happened yet. Betting edges are measured against the fair price, not the sticker odds — see the methodology and glossary.