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Farid Basharat vs Ethyn Ewing — prediction, odds & how it ends

Bantamweight · 3R
Red corner
Basharat
“Ferocious”
15-0 · 71" · Orthodox
no UFC bouts
VS
Blue corner
Ewing
“The Professor Finesser”
10-2 · 68.5" · Orthodox
no UFC bouts
Win probabilitymodel prediction
54%
46%
Basharat +110-130 Ewing

odds, translated: +110 ≈ 48% implied chance · -130 ≈ 57%

Most likely outcome
Basharat · Decision
Finish vs decision
29% finish·71% goes the distance

Style clash

career averages vs division benchmark

Bigger polygon = more of that trait. Career averages (not opponent-adjusted); the date is each fighter's last bout.

OutputAccuracyDefenseChinKO threatTakedownsSub threatCardioBasharat · Output: 4.25Basharat · Accuracy: 0.52Basharat · Defense: 0.62Basharat · Chin: 0.00Basharat · KO threat: 0.00Basharat · Takedowns: 3.34Basharat · Sub threat: 0.30Basharat · Cardio: 1.00Ewing · Output: 7.44Ewing · Accuracy: 0.55Ewing · Defense: 0.63Ewing · Chin: 0.00Ewing · KO threat: 0.56Ewing · Takedowns: 1.68Ewing · Sub threat: 0.00Ewing · Cardio: 2.67
Basharatas of 2026-02
Ewingas of 2026-04
Division avg · Bantamweight258 fighters

How it ends

method × round

Each cell is the model's chance the fight ends that way, in that round. Brighter = more likely; hover for the exact number.

R1
R2
R3
Basharat KO
4%
3%
2%
Basharat SUB
3%
2%
1%
Ewing KO
4%
3%
2%
Ewing SUB
2%
2%
Basharat decGoes to decision 71%Ewing dec

When it ends

still fighting %

The line is the model's chance the fight is still going after each round — where it drops, finishes cluster.

0255075100After R1: 87% still fightingR1After R2: 77% still fightingR2After R3: 71% still fightingR3
after R1 87% liveafter R2 77% liveafter R3 71% livereaches decision 71%

Tale of the tape

bar = magnitude · bold = edge
71"
Reach
69"
—
Age
—
4.25
Strikes / min
7.44
52%
Strike acc
55%
62%
Strike def
63%
54%
TD def
100%
0.00
Knockdowns / 15m
0.56

Official plays

tracked & graded in the ledger
No official play — the model passes this fight.

Model board

reference only — not bets, not in the track record
Opening price → now · our fair price
Farid Basharatopen +110▼0now +110fair -116
Ethyn Ewingopen -130▼0now -130fair +116
MarketBestEdge
▸Moneyline(2)
Farid Basharat to win+110—
Ethyn Ewing to win-130—

Moneyline edges are the model's calibrated edge vs the no-vig sharp fair. Prop edges marked ~ have no sharp line (thin / one-book) — treat as unverified. Only the official plays above are bets; everything else here is model reference. Prices as of Jul 6, 11:43 UTC.

Track record+14.2% ROI644 bets · backtested 2023–2026full ledger →
Style data is snapshotted before fight night, so the model never sees results that hadn't happened yet. Betting edges are measured against the fair price, not the sticker odds — see the methodology and glossary.