KOKNOCKOUT MMA
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Ryan Gandra vs Zachary Reese — prediction, odds & how it ends

Middleweight · 3R
Red corner
Gandra
“Problema”
9-1 · 74.5" · Orthodox
WKO
VS
Blue corner
Reese
“Savage”
10-3 · 77" · Orthodox
no UFC bouts
Win probabilitymodel prediction
57%
43%
Gandra -135+118 Reese

odds, translated: -135 ≈ 57% implied chance · +118 ≈ 46%

Most likely outcome
Gandra · KO/TKO · R1
Finish vs decision
66% finish·34% goes the distance
The call

Our model picks Gandra by KO/TKO. The model gives Gandra 57%.

The market

The current price implies roughly 57%. The model and the market are reading this one the same way.

The danger

Reese still wins this 43% of the time in the model, and with a 66% chance the fight ends inside the distance, one clean sequence can beat the forecast.

The decision

Official play on this fight — the exact market and captured price are on the board below.

Style clash

career averages vs division benchmark

Bigger polygon = more of that trait. Career averages (not opponent-adjusted); the date is each fighter's last bout.

OutputAccuracyDefenseChinKO threatTakedownsSub threatCardioGandra · Output: 13.02Gandra · Accuracy: 0.50Gandra · Defense: 0.81Gandra · Chin: 0.00Gandra · KO threat: 0.00Gandra · Takedowns: 0.00Gandra · Sub threat: 0.00Gandra · Cardio: 0.00Reese · Output: 4.48Reese · Accuracy: 0.54Reese · Defense: 0.43Reese · Chin: 0.00Reese · KO threat: 0.34Reese · Takedowns: 2.80Reese · Sub threat: 1.30Reese · Cardio: 0.00
Gandraas of 2026-02
Reeseas of 2026-02
Division avg · Middleweight348 fighters

How it ends

method × round

Each cell is the model's chance the fight ends that way, in that round. Brighter = more likely; hover for the exact number.

R1
R2
R3
Gandra KO
21%
9%
4%
Gandra SUB
2%
Reese KO
8%
4%
1%
Reese SUB
9%
4%
2%
Gandra decGoes to decision 34%Reese dec

When it ends

still fighting %

The line is the model's chance the fight is still going after each round — where it drops, finishes cluster.

0255075100After R1: 60% still fightingR1After R2: 43% still fightingR2After R3: 35% still fightingR3
after R1 60% liveafter R2 43% liveafter R3 35% livereaches decision 34%

Tale of the tape

bar = magnitude · bold = edge
75"
Reach
77"
31
Age
33
13.02
Strikes / min
4.48
50%
Strike acc
54%
81%
Strike def
43%
100%
TD def
52%
—
Knockdowns / 15m
0.34

Official plays

tracked & graded in the ledger

Two checks, two claims: public line history can verify the quoted price existed on the operator-recorded capture day; the hash published before the first fight proves the complete card was fixed before the fights.

● OFFICIAL PLAYZach Reese by SUB+1600+10.95pp edge@ soft US bookcaptured Sat, Jul 11

Scheduled for today's pre-fight commitment; graded in the public ledger after.

Model board

reference only — not bets, not in the track record
Opening price → now · our fair price
Ryan Gandraopen +190▲23now -135fair -131
Zachary Reeseopen -225▼23.4now +118fair +131
MarketBestEdge
▸Moneyline(2)
Zachary Reese to win+118-1.4
Ryan Gandra to win-135-1.6
▸Round totals(3)
Over 0.5 rounds-360~+21.7
Over 1.5 rounds+160+21.4
Over 2.5 rounds+305~+17
▸By KO/TKO(6)
Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO-115~+0.1
Zachary Reese by KO/TKO+220~-3.4
Zachary Reese by KO/TKO+375-7.7
Zachary Reese by KO/TKO+150~-11.5
Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO+102-12.9
Ryan Gandra by KO/TKO-110~-15.1
▸By submission(4)
Ryan Gandra by Sub+750~+10.7
Zachary Reese by Sub+255~+2.1
Ryan Gandra by Sub+2000-2.3
Zachary Reese by Sub+430-3.1
▸By decision(2)
Ryan Gandra by Decision+1400+12
Zachary Reese by Decision+800+0.7
▸Round of victory(6)
Ryan Gandra in R3+1700~-1.3
Zachary Reese in R3+1750~-2.1
Ryan Gandra in R2+650~-3.1
Zachary Reese in R2+800~-3.3
Zachary Reese in R1+365~-4.1
Ryan Gandra in R1+200~-10.5
▸Method × round(12)
Ryan Gandra Sub R3+12000~-0.5
Ryan Gandra Sub R1+4000~-0.6
Ryan Gandra Sub R2+6000~-0.8
Ryan Gandra KO R3+1900~-1.1
Zachary Reese Sub R1+850~-1.1
Zachary Reese Sub R2+1750~-1.2
Zachary Reese Sub R3+3300~-1.2
Zachary Reese KO R3+3000~-1.7
Zachary Reese KO R2+1500~-2.7
Ryan Gandra KO R2+700~-3.1
Zachary Reese KO R1+675~-4.9
Ryan Gandra KO R1+200~-12.4
▸Inside distance(2)
Zachary Reese inside distance+175-9.4
Ryan Gandra inside distance-105-14.3

Moneyline edges are the model's calibrated edge vs the no-vig sharp fair. Prop edges marked ~ have no sharp line (thin / one-book) — treat as unverified. Only the official plays above are bets; everything else here is model reference. Prices as of Jul 10, 11:00 UTC.

Track record+26% ROI1,902 bets · backtested 2023–2026full ledger →

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Style data is snapshotted before fight night, so the model never sees results that hadn't happened yet. Betting edges are measured against the fair price, not the sticker odds — see the methodology and glossary.