KOKNOCKOUT MMA
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Cody Durden vs Alessandro Costa — prediction, odds & how it ends

Bantamweight · 3R
Red corner
Durden
“Custom Made”
18-10-1 · 67" · Orthodox
WDECLDECLSUBLKOLDEC
VS
Blue corner
Costa
“Nono”
16-5 · 67" · Orthodox
WKOLKOWKOLDECWKO
Win probabilitymodel prediction
44%
56%
Durden +205-230 Costa

odds, translated: +205 ≈ 33% implied chance · -230 ≈ 70%

Most likely outcome
Costa · Decision
Finish vs decision
53% finish·47% goes the distance
The call

Our model picks Costa by decision. The model gives Costa 56%.

The market

The current price implies roughly 70%. The market likes Costa even more than the model does.

The danger

Durden still wins this 44% of the time in the model, and with a 53% chance the fight ends inside the distance, one clean sequence can beat the forecast.

The decision

Model pick, no official bet. A prediction is not automatically a bet; the price didn't clear the rules on this one.

Style clash

career averages vs division benchmark

Bigger polygon = more of that trait. Career averages (not opponent-adjusted); the date is each fighter's last bout.

OutputAccuracyDefenseChinKO threatTakedownsSub threatCardioDurden · Output: 3.24Durden · Accuracy: 0.44Durden · Defense: 0.50Durden · Chin: 0.32Durden · KO threat: 0.10Durden · Takedowns: 3.99Durden · Sub threat: 0.70Durden · Cardio: 0.84Costa · Output: 3.86Costa · Accuracy: 0.46Costa · Defense: 0.56Costa · Chin: 0.40Costa · KO threat: 0.74Costa · Takedowns: 0.77Costa · Sub threat: 0.40Costa · Cardio: 0.31
Durdenas of 2026-04
Costaas of 2026-04
Division avg · Bantamweight258 fighters

How it ends

method × round

Each cell is the model's chance the fight ends that way, in that round. Brighter = more likely; hover for the exact number.

R1
R2
R3
Durden KO
7%
6%
2%
Durden SUB
4%
3%
1%
Costa KO
10%
8%
2%
Costa SUB
4%
4%
1%
Durden decGoes to decision 47%Costa dec

When it ends

still fighting %

The line is the model's chance the fight is still going after each round — where it drops, finishes cluster.

0255075100After R1: 71% still fightingR1After R2: 48% still fightingR2After R3: 41% still fightingR3
after R1 71% liveafter R2 48% liveafter R3 41% livereaches decision 47%

Tale of the tape

bar = magnitude · bold = edge
67"
Reach
67"
35
Age
—
3.24
Strikes / min
3.86
44%
Strike acc
46%
50%
Strike def
56%
56%
TD def
86%
0.10
Knockdowns / 15m
0.74

Official plays

tracked & graded in the ledger
No official play — the model passes this fight.

Model board

reference only — not bets, not in the track record
Opening price → now · our fair price
Cody Durdenopen +250▲4.2now +205fair +126
Alessandro Costaopen -300▼5.3now -230fair -126
MarketBestEdge
▸Moneyline(2)
Cody Durden to win+205+2.9
Alessandro Costa to win-230-12.5
▸Round totals(3)
Over 1.5 rounds-185+10.4
Over 0.5 rounds-1000~+9.1
Over 2.5 rounds+102~+3.5
▸By KO/TKO(6)
Cody Durden by KO/TKO+550~+8.1
Cody Durden by KO/TKO+260~+7.7
Cody Durden by KO/TKO+850+4.1
Alessandro Costa by KO/TKO+100~-3.4
Alessandro Costa by KO/TKO+220-9.8
Alessandro Costa by KO/TKO+100~-20.4
▸By submission(4)
Cody Durden by Sub+325~+6
Cody Durden by Sub+1300+1.4
Alessandro Costa by Sub+130~-8.2
Alessandro Costa by Sub+450-8.5
▸By decision(2)
Alessandro Costa by Decision+320+2.5
Cody Durden by Decision+470+1.5
▸Round of victory(6)
Cody Durden in R2+1600~+3.4
Cody Durden in R1+1100~+3.2
Cody Durden in R3+2500~-1.2
Alessandro Costa in R2+550~-3.7
Alessandro Costa in R3+850~-7.1
Alessandro Costa in R1+310~-9.8
▸Method × round(12)
Cody Durden KO R1+1800~+2
Cody Durden KO R2+2500~+1.9
Cody Durden Sub R2+4000~+1
Cody Durden Sub R1+2700~+0.8
Cody Durden Sub R3+5000~-1
Cody Durden KO R3+3500~-1.1
Alessandro Costa KO R2+850~-2.5
Alessandro Costa Sub R2+1500~-2.7
Alessandro Costa Sub R3+2250~-3.2
Alessandro Costa Sub R1+1000~-4.6
Alessandro Costa KO R3+1300~-4.8
Alessandro Costa KO R1+550~-5.3
▸Inside distance(2)
Cody Durden inside distance+550+6.2
Alessandro Costa inside distance+110-18.3

Moneyline edges are the model's calibrated edge vs the no-vig sharp fair. Prop edges marked ~ have no sharp line (thin / one-book) — treat as unverified. Only the official plays above are bets; everything else here is model reference. Prices as of Jul 10, 11:00 UTC.

Track record+26% ROI1,902 bets · backtested 2023–2026full ledger →

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Style data is snapshotted before fight night, so the model never sees results that hadn't happened yet. Betting edges are measured against the fair price, not the sticker odds — see the methodology and glossary.