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Cody Durden vs Alessandro Costa — prediction, odds & how it ends

Bantamweight · 3R
Red corner
Durden
“Custom Made”
18-10-1 · 67" · Orthodox
WDECLDECLSUBLKOLDEC
VS
Blue corner
Costa
“Nono”
16-5 · 67" · Orthodox
WKOLKOWKOLDECWKO
Win probabilitymodel prediction
41%
59%
Durden +225-250 Costa

odds, translated: +225 ≈ 31% implied chance · -250 ≈ 71%

Most likely outcome
Costa · Decision
Finish vs decision
56% finish·44% goes the distance

Style clash

career averages vs division benchmark

Bigger polygon = more of that trait. Career averages (not opponent-adjusted); the date is each fighter's last bout.

OutputAccuracyDefenseChinKO threatTakedownsSub threatCardioDurden · Output: 3.24Durden · Accuracy: 0.44Durden · Defense: 0.50Durden · Chin: 0.32Durden · KO threat: 0.10Durden · Takedowns: 3.99Durden · Sub threat: 0.70Durden · Cardio: 0.84Costa · Output: 3.86Costa · Accuracy: 0.46Costa · Defense: 0.56Costa · Chin: 0.40Costa · KO threat: 0.74Costa · Takedowns: 0.77Costa · Sub threat: 0.40Costa · Cardio: 0.31
Durdenas of 2026-04
Costaas of 2026-04
Division avg · Bantamweight258 fighters

How it ends

method × round

Each cell is the model's chance the fight ends that way, in that round. Brighter = more likely; hover for the exact number.

R1
R2
R3
Durden KO
7%
6%
1%
Durden SUB
4%
3%
Costa KO
11%
10%
2%
Costa SUB
5%
4%
1%
Durden decGoes to decision 44%Costa dec

When it ends

still fighting %

The line is the model's chance the fight is still going after each round — where it drops, finishes cluster.

0255075100After R1: 71% still fightingR1After R2: 45% still fightingR2After R3: 39% still fightingR3
after R1 71% liveafter R2 45% liveafter R3 39% livereaches decision 44%

Tale of the tape

bar = magnitude · bold = edge
67"
Reach
67"
35
Age
—
3.24
Strikes / min
3.86
44%
Strike acc
46%
50%
Strike def
56%
56%
TD def
86%
0.10
Knockdowns / 15m
0.74

Official plays

tracked & graded in the ledger
No official play — the model passes this fight.

Model board

reference only — not bets, not in the track record
Opening price → now · our fair price
Cody Durdenopen +250▲2.2now +225fair +146
Alessandro Costaopen -300▼3.6now -250fair -146
MarketBestEdge
▸Moneyline(2)
Cody Durden to win+225+6
Alessandro Costa to win-250-9.9
▸Round totals(3)
Over 1.5 rounds-189+9.9
Over 0.5 rounds-1000~+9.1
Over 2.5 rounds-178~-14
▸By KO/TKO(6)
Cody Durden by KO/TKO+500~+6
Cody Durden by KO/TKO+255~+4.1
Cody Durden by KO/TKO+800~+3.2
Alessandro Costa by KO/TKO+100~-0.7
Alessandro Costa by KO/TKO+215~-8.8
Alessandro Costa by KO/TKO+100~-16.8
▸By submission(4)
Cody Durden by Sub+300~+1.3
Cody Durden by Sub+1200~+0.6
Alessandro Costa by Sub+120~-9
Alessandro Costa by Sub+375~-10.9
▸By decision(2)
Cody Durden by Decision+450~-0.2
Alessandro Costa by Decision+250~-2.3
▸Round of victory(6)
Cody Durden in R2+1400~+2.8
Cody Durden in R1+1000~+1.7
Cody Durden in R3+2200~-2
Alessandro Costa in R2+500~-2.8
Alessandro Costa in R3+700~-9.1
Alessandro Costa in R1+275~-10.8
▸Method × round(12)
Cody Durden KO R2+2200~+1.6
Cody Durden KO R1+1600~+1
Cody Durden Sub R2+3000~+0.3
Cody Durden Sub R1+2200~-0.4
Cody Durden KO R3+3500~-1.3
Cody Durden Sub R3+4500~-1.3
Alessandro Costa KO R2+800~-1.5
Alessandro Costa Sub R2+1300~-2.9
Alessandro Costa Sub R3+1900~-3.9
Alessandro Costa KO R3+1200~-5.3
Alessandro Costa KO R1+500~-5.7
Alessandro Costa Sub R1+850~-5.7
▸Inside distance(2)
Cody Durden inside distance+500~+6
Alessandro Costa inside distance+100~-16.8

Moneyline edges are the model's calibrated edge vs the no-vig sharp fair. Prop edges marked ~ have no sharp line (thin / one-book) — treat as unverified. Only the official plays above are bets; everything else here is model reference. Prices as of Jul 6, 11:43 UTC.

Track record+14.2% ROI644 bets · backtested 2023–2026full ledger →
Style data is snapshotted before fight night, so the model never sees results that hadn't happened yet. Betting edges are measured against the fair price, not the sticker odds — see the methodology and glossary.