UFC 329 Predictions: Model Picks for Every Fight on McGregor vs Holloway 2
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 lands Saturday, July 11, 2026 — a 14-fight card headlined by a lightweight rematch five years in the making. Below are our model's predictions for every bout: who wins, how it ends, and how likely each fight is to finish inside the distance. These are the outputs of an outcome-distribution model validated walk-forward across 2023–2026 — the same engine behind the site's public track record.
The headline read: the model projects 11 of 14 fights to end inside the distance, and disagrees with the betting favorite in 3 spots. In the main event it sides with the favorite — Holloway — even more firmly than the odds do.
The main event: McGregor vs Holloway
Our model makes Holloway a 71% favorite — picks Holloway by decision. Whether that number is a value play or a trap comes down to price, and we break it down in a dedicated main-event prediction. Full interactive breakdown, method-by-round grid, and the style-clash octagon are on the fight page.
Full-card predictions
Every modeled fight on UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2, in card order. “Win %” is the model's probability for its pick; “Finish” is the chance the fight ends inside the distance.
| Fight | Model pick | Win % | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| McGregor vs Holloway★ Lightweight | Holloway by decision | 71% | 63% |
| Saint-Denis vs Pimblett Lightweight | Saint-Denis by decision | 66% | 59% |
| Sandhagen vs Bautista Bantamweight | Bautista by decisionupset | 57% | 43% |
| Royval vs Kavanagh Flyweight | Royval by decisionupset | 55% | 52% |
| Green vs McKinney Lightweight | McKinney by decision | 56% | 65% |
| Whittaker vs Krylov Middleweight | Whittaker by decision | 57% | 55% |
| Steveson vs Ellison Heavyweight | Steveson by KO/TKO | 82% | 67% |
| Garbrandt vs Yanez Bantamweight | Yanez by decision | 86% | 54% |
| Riley vs Kamaka Featherweight | Riley by decision | 83% | 52% |
| Cortez vs Cong Women's Flyweight | Cortez by decision | 66% | 43% |
| Pinas vs Almeida Middleweight | Pinas by decision | 73% | 59% |
| Basharat vs Ewing Bantamweight | Basharat by decisionupset | 54% | 29% |
| Gandra vs Reese Middleweight | Gandra by KO/TKO | 57% | 66% |
| Durden vs Costa Bantamweight | Costa by decision | 59% | 56% |
Most likely to finish
If you want fireworks, the model's most violent projection on the card is Steveson vs Ellison at a 67% finish chance. The full finish forecast — every fight ranked by how likely it is to end early — is on the full card.
Where the model fades the favorite
- Sandhagen vs Bautista — model takes Bautista (57%) +128 against the betting favorite.
- Royval vs Kavanagh — model takes Royval (55%) +195 against the betting favorite.
- Basharat vs Ewing — model takes Basharat (54%) +110 against the betting favorite.
How to read these predictions
A prediction is not a bet. The win probabilities above are the model's honest estimate of each outcome — useful for understanding the card, but the betting decision is a separate question about price. Where the model's number disagrees enough with the sportsbooks to matter, we cover it in UFC 329 odds & model edges. If any of the terms here are new, the UFC betting primer explains odds, fair prices, and finish markets from zero.
Predictions and model numbers are for information and entertainment; nothing here is betting advice, and past results — backtested or live — do not guarantee future returns. Odds cited were accurate at publication and move constantly. 21+ where applicable. Problem gambling help: 1-800-GAMBLER. See our methodology.