UFC 329 Predictions: Model Picks for Every Fight on McGregor vs Holloway 2
Data last refreshed Jul 10, 11:00 UTC — odds and counts in this article are as of that pull, and prices keep moving.
The call
Holloway by decision in the main event.
The number
14 fights · 11 projected finishes · 3 model upsets.
The risk
Every pick leaves the other corner a live number — the main event alone gives McGregor 29%.
14 fights. 11 projected finishes. 3 model upsets. And one famous underdog the model likes even less than the market does.
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 lands Saturday, July 11, 2026, and it is the first live card for Knockout MMA. The entire beta is free: every prediction, every finish forecast, and every official play. The calls are below. (13 bouts carry model numbers; one late matchup change is still being priced.) The receipt comes after the fights.
The main event: McGregor vs Holloway
The call: Holloway by decision. The model gives Holloway 71% and McGregor 29%. It puts the fight at 59% to finish inside the distance, and Holloway by decision is still the single most likely outcome.
That is a forecast, not a promise. McGregor's early power is the danger. The full fight page shows where the finish risk clusters and how the market price compares with the model, and we break the whole matchup down in a dedicated main-event prediction.
Full-card predictions
Here is the full board, in card order. “Win %” is the model's probability for its pick. “Finish” is the chance the fight ends before the final bell. The other side always has a number — that is why these are probabilities, not promises.
| Fight | Model pick | Win % | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|
| McGregor vs Holloway★ Lightweight | Holloway by decision | 71% | 59% |
| Saint-Denis vs Pimblett Lightweight | Saint-Denis by decision | 66% | 59% |
| Sandhagen vs Bautista Bantamweight | Bautista by decisionupset | 60% | 43% |
| Royval vs Kavanagh Flyweight | Royval by decisionupset | 55% | 52% |
| Green vs McKinney Lightweight | McKinney by decision | 54% | 64% |
| Whittaker vs Krylov Middleweight | Whittaker by decision | 57% | 55% |
| Steveson vs Ellison Heavyweight | Steveson by KO/TKO | 83% | 67% |
| Garbrandt vs Yanez Bantamweight | Yanez by decision | 86% | 54% |
| Riley vs Kamaka Featherweight | Riley by decision | 81% | 52% |
| Cortez vs Cong Women's Flyweight | Cortez by decisionupset | 66% | 43% |
| Pinas vs Almeida Middleweight | Pinas by decision | 75% | 59% |
| Gandra vs Reese Middleweight | Gandra by KO/TKO | 57% | 66% |
| Durden vs Costa Bantamweight | Costa by decision | 56% | 53% |
Most likely to finish
If you came for violence, start with Steveson vs Ellison. The model gives it a 67% finish probability, highest on the card. High is not certain: that number still leaves a 33% chance this one reaches the scorecards. The full finish forecast — every fight ranked by how likely it is to end early — is on the free card.
Where the model fades the favorite
3 favorites get faded by the model. That does not make all 3 underdogs bets. The pick is not the bet; the available price still has to do its job.
- Sandhagen vs Bautista — model takes Bautista (60%) +122 against the betting favorite.
- Royval vs Kavanagh — model takes Royval (55%) +190 against the betting favorite.
- Cortez vs Cong — model takes Cortez (66%) -101 against the betting favorite.
What could make this wrong?
Any single call. These are probabilities, not promises: the main event still gives McGregor a 29% path, and the least confident call on the card — Green vs McKinney at 54% — is closer to a coin flip than a conviction. If the night goes sideways, the receipt will say so: every call above gets graded in public, wins and losses alike.
A prediction is not a bet
The win probabilities above are the model's honest estimate of each outcome. The betting decision is a separate question about price. Where the numbers disagree enough to matter, we cover it in UFC 329 odds & model edges, and if any term here is new, the UFC betting primer starts from zero.
UFC 329 is free from top to bottom. Explore the live card now, then get the final version by email before lock. After the fights, we send the receipt — every call graded in public on the record, wins and losses alike.
Predictions and model numbers are for information and entertainment; nothing here is betting advice, and past results — backtested or live — do not guarantee future returns. Odds cited were accurate at publication and move constantly. 21+ where applicable. Problem gambling help: 1-800-GAMBLER. See our methodology.