KNOCKOUT MMA

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan

Saturday, October 10, 2026 · contests started 5:00 PM ET · frozen when contests start · published Oct 7, 10:06 PM ET

Open the full sheet: every fighter, every column, free this week.

The first two bouts are open. One email opens all 24 fighters.

Open the full sheet

All 24 fighters across 12 bouts: win chance, how it ends, points on a win or a loss, the 100+ chance and ownership. Free this week with one email.

The sheet 12 bouts · 4 rows open · the rest open with one email this week · click a column to sort

Filters24 rowsWrite a call first
OwnershipCall it
The sheet. Sort by any column heading. A dash means no value.
FighterBoutSalaryWinKOSubDecRound 1On a winOn a loss100+ProjOwn
Brendan Allenvs Christian Leroy DuncanCall it1$8,50054%13%22%19%13%111.423.749%71.342%
Christian Leroy Duncanvs Brendan AllenCall it1$7,70046%29%4%13%12%109.125.340%63.643%
Jai HerbertMembers · open this weekvs Matheus CamiloCall it2$7,40037%14%6%16%11%84.716.711%41.628%
Matheus CamiloMembers · open this weekvs Jai HerbertCall it2$8,80063%21%11%32%15%95.323.126%68.928%
Ketlen Souzavs Loopy GodinezCall it3$7,200
Loopy Godinezvs Ketlen SouzaCall it3$9,000
Andre Filivs Kai Kamaka IIICall it4$8,600
Kai Kamaka IIIvs Andre FiliCall it4$7,600
Malcolm Wellmakervs Otari TanziloviCall it5$8,900
Otari Tanzilovivs Malcolm WellmakerCall it5$7,300
Gerald Meerschaertvs Julius WalkerCall it6$7,000
Julius Walkervs Gerald MeerschaertCall it6$9,200
Francisco Pradovs Ismael BonfimCall it7$8,000
Ismael Bonfimvs Francisco PradoCall it7$8,200
Leon Shahbazyanvs Niko PriceCall it8$8,700
Niko Pricevs Leon ShahbazyanCall it8$7,500
Brendson Ribeirovs Felipe FrancoCall it9$6,900
Felipe Francovs Brendson RibeiroCall it9$9,300
Allen Frye Jr.vs RJ HarrisCall it10$7,100
RJ Harrisvs Allen Frye Jr.Call it10$9,100
Alice Pereiravs Daria ZhelezniakovaCall it11$8,400
Daria Zhelezniakovavs Alice PereiraCall it11$7,800
Ernesta Kareckaitevs Melissa GattoCall it12$7,900
Melissa Gattovs Ernesta KareckaiteCall it12$8,300

marks the members’ rows in the two open bouts.

The star saves a fighter to your shortlist on this device. Search includes opponents. The Monday review lands here after the card.

Compare two fighters Salary, scoring and ownership, side by side
Comparison of selected fighters. Member values require membership. A dash means unavailable.
MetricBrendan AllenChristian Leroy Duncan
Salary$8,500$7,700
OpponentChristian Leroy DuncanBrendan Allen
Win chance54%46%
Projected points71.363.6
100+ points49%40%
Points in a win111.4109.1
Ownership · large contest42%43%

A dash means the number is not available. Compare the numbers, then make your own call.

The card read

Biggest favourite on our numbers: Brendan Allen (54% to win). Top projection: Brendan Allen (71.3 DK points). Most-owned forecast: Christian Leroy Duncan (43%). Best shot at 100+: Brendan Allen (49%). Our projection and ownership are our own models; the numbers are a read, not advice.

Ownership by contest type flagship, Mega, 20-max, single entry, cash · Members · open this week

Filters24 rows
The sheet. Sort by any column heading. A dash means no value.
FighterBoutSalaryFlagshipMega20-maxSingle entryCash
Brendan Allen1$8,50042%42%43%46%69%
Christian Leroy Duncan1$7,70043%42%44%47%86%
Jai HerbertMembers · open this week2$7,40028%28%28%28%26%
Matheus CamiloMembers · open this week2$8,80028%28%29%32%23%
Ketlen Souza3$7,200Open the full sheet with your email
Loopy Godinez3$9,000Open the full sheet with your email
Andre Fili4$8,600Open the full sheet with your email
Kai Kamaka III4$7,600Open the full sheet with your email
Malcolm Wellmaker5$8,900Open the full sheet with your email
Otari Tanzilovi5$7,300Open the full sheet with your email
Gerald Meerschaert6$7,000Open the full sheet with your email
Julius Walker6$9,200Open the full sheet with your email
Francisco Prado7$8,000Open the full sheet with your email
Ismael Bonfim7$8,200Open the full sheet with your email
Leon Shahbazyan8$8,700Open the full sheet with your email
Niko Price8$7,500Open the full sheet with your email
Brendson Ribeiro9$6,900Open the full sheet with your email
Felipe Franco9$9,300Open the full sheet with your email
Allen Frye Jr.10$7,100Open the full sheet with your email
RJ Harris10$9,100Open the full sheet with your email
Alice Pereira11$8,400Open the full sheet with your email
Daria Zhelezniakova11$7,800Open the full sheet with your email
Ernesta Kareckaite12$7,900Open the full sheet with your email
Melissa Gatto12$8,300Open the full sheet with your email

The hatched rows open with one email. Open the full sheet ↑

Each column uses its own contest forecast. A dash means that forecast is unavailable; the large-contest forecast is used only for Flagship.

How to read the sheet

ColumnWhat it means
WinChance to win, from the betting market with the bookmaker margin removed. The favourite is in bold.
KO / Sub / DecChance to win by knockout, submission or decision. The three add up to the win chance. KO and Sub are hidden on a card where the market carries no finish split.
Round 1Chance to win inside the first round, where the big scores come from.
On a win / lossExpected DraftKings points in each case.
100+Chance of scoring 100 points or more. The deeper the shade, the higher the chance.
ProjOur projection: expected DraftKings points, from our own fight model.
OwnOur forecast of the share of lineups that will roster the fighter in a large contest.
OwnershipOur forecast by contest type: the flagship, the Mega, 20-max rooms, single entry and cash.
MembersA hatched row is a member row: the fighter and salary are public, the numbers are on the full sheet. During open week member rows show every number and carry a dot: Members · open this week.

Every number comes from our own model and public inputs. We never republish another service’s projections or ownership, and we never hand out lineups: you build your own. The sheet is frozen when contests start and reviewed on Monday.