Built from the fight

One sheet per card: the chance every fighter wins, how and when it ends, the ceiling and where the field will be, frozen when contests start and reviewed on Monday.

Knockout MMA is the UFC daily fantasy sheet for DraftKings, run by Ryan Cullen and built by people who play UFC DFS every card.

Winning explains most of a fighter’s DraftKings score; how and when the win comes explains most of the rest. So the sheet starts from the fight: the chance each fighter wins, how it ends and in which round, from betting markets with the bookmaker margin removed. Our own volume model, built on round-by-round results, turns that into points on a win, points on a loss, the chance of 100+, and a projection.

The ownership column is our own forecast from public inputs: salary, how the card is priced, the order of the card and how fighters like this have been rostered before.

The sheet is frozen when contests start. On Monday the review shows what won, the scores that mattered and how the sheet called it.

• Lineups. We never sell or share pre-built lineups. The sheet is analysis; you make every pick.
• Another service’s projections or ownership numbers, or anything derived from them.
• Our selection rules, exposures, or which contests we enter and how many times.

We enter the same DraftKings contests our readers do. When many people use the same numbers, lineups get more alike and shared first places pay less, and that includes ours. We would rather say so than pretend otherwise.

We use AI tools to draft parts of the writing (sheet notes, the Monday recap, video scripts) from our own data. A person checks every number and makes every call. The voice on video is Ryan’s; we never use an AI voice or avatar.

This is fantasy sports analysis for adults 21 and over in places where daily fantasy is legal. It is not gambling advice and it is not a promise of results. Most daily fantasy players lose money over time, and the contest fee is a real cost.

Knockout MMA is not affiliated with DraftKings or the UFC. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.