Open the full sheet: every fighter, every column, free this week.
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Call it
I want to win if against Christian Leroy Duncan. The book has it at .
Published sheet Every underlined word is yours to change. The numbers are the sheet’s.
Brendan Allen: 111.4 DraftKings points on a win · 100+ chance 49% · projection 71.3 · salary $8,500
Owned by room: Flagship 42% · Mega 42% · 20-max 43% · Single entry 46% · Cash 69%
Our number, from the sheet. The book’s chance keeps its margin in. The call is yours.
Your numbers
Change a win chance or an ownership share; every number recomputes in your browser and stays on this device.
1. I think wins of the time and the field has the fighter at owned.
| Bout 1 | Brendan Allen | Christian Leroy Duncan | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheet | Yours | Sheet | Yours | |
| Win | 54.3% | 54.3% | 45.7% | 45.7% |
| Projection | 71.3 | 71.3 | 63.6 | 63.6 |
| 100+ chance | 48.7% | 48.7% | 40.4% | 40.4% |
| Round 1 | 13.5% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 12.3% |
| Decision | 19.4% | 19.4% | 13.0% | 13.0% |
| Owned | 42.1% | 42.1% | 43.0% | 43.0% |
| 100+ chance minus owned | +6.6 pp | +6.6 pp | −2.6 pp | −2.6 pp |
2. I think wins of the time and the field has the fighter at owned.
| Bout 2 | Jai Herbert | Matheus Camilo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheet | Yours | Sheet | Yours | |
| Win | 36.6% | 36.6% | 63.4% | 63.4% |
| Projection | 41.6 | 41.6 | 68.9 | 68.9 |
| 100+ chance | 11.3% | 11.3% | 26.1% | 26.1% |
| Round 1 | 11.3% | 11.3% | 15.5% | 15.5% |
| Decision | 16.5% | 16.5% | 31.8% | 31.8% |
| Owned | 27.7% | 27.7% | 28.2% | 28.2% |
| 100+ chance minus owned | −16.4 pp | −16.4 pp | −2.2 pp | −2.2 pp |
Your numbers never leave this browser. Move the win chance back to the sheet’s, or press Reset, and every number matches the sheet again. The full sheet
How the numbers work
Our chance comes straight from the sheet: wins is the win column, wins by decision is the decision column, wins in round 1 is the round 1 column, and wins inside the distance is the win chance minus the decision chance.
The book’s chance is the price you type, turned into a chance with the bookmaker’s margin still in it: +150 is 40%, −200 is 66.7%. The gap is our chance minus that, in percentage points (pp). The risk line is what that price asks you to put up to win the amount in your sentence.
Your numbers are the edge. The sheet is where the field starts. Your numbers on each bout are where you leave it. Lineups built from them are yours: different from the field, and different from every other member’s.
Your numbers change one input, the win chance, and keep everything else the sheet knows about the fight. The projection is the win chance times the points on a win plus the loss chance times the points on a loss. The 100+ chance, round 1 and decision scale with the win chance (the 100+ chance given a win stays the same). Leverage is the 100+ chance minus the share of lineups you expect to roster that fighter. Set the win chance back to the sheet’s and every number matches the sheet.
Your numbers stay in this browser and never leave it. The sheet says what it says, and the call is yours. The full sheet How to write a call