How to write a call: the sentence, the gap and your own numbers

Why a call is written as a sentence

The ticket is the sentence. On Call it you write one line: I want to win $100 if Fighter A wins in round 1 against Fighter B. The book has it at +400. Every underlined word is yours to change. The sheet answers in numbers for that exact sentence.

There are four underlined words you can change. The amount is the size of the call. The fighter is who the sentence is about. The outcome is how he wins: wins, wins inside the distance, wins in round 1 or wins by decision. The price is the American price you see, typed the way you see it.

Each outcome also means something in DraftKings points. A decision win carries a 30-point win bonus. A finish carries 90 in round 1, 70 in round 2, 45 in round 3 and 40 in rounds 4 and 5. A round 1 win inside the first 60 seconds adds 25 more. That is why the sheet puts points on a win next to the chance to win. The same winner can be a modest fantasy score or a huge one, depending on how the fight ends.

• Wins: the win column on the sheet.
• Wins by decision: the decision column.
• Wins in round 1: the round 1 column.
• Wins inside the distance: the win chance minus the decision chance.

Source: DraftKings official reference ↗

Reading the gap

An American price turns into a chance in one step. A plus price of +150 is 100 ÷ (150 + 100) = 40%. A minus price of −200 is 200 ÷ (200 + 100) = 66.7%. Call it keeps the margin in. Both sides of a bout usually add up to more than 100%, and that extra is the margin. So the chance a price implies runs a little high.

Our number is the sheet's chance for the same outcome. The gap is our number minus the price's chance, in percentage points. Our number at 48% against +150 is 48 − 40 = +8 pp. The page also shows our number as a price: 48% with no margin is about +108.

A big gap is a question. It asks what one side sees that the other does not. The price may have moved after the sheet was published. A late change at the weigh-ins may matter. A round 1 or decision price often carries a wider margin than the win price. Read a big gap as the start of a read. Check the fight, the news and the time stamp on the sheet. The sheet says what it says, and the call is yours.

What your win chance changes, and what it does not

Your numbers changes one input: the win chance for one fighter in one bout. Everything else the sheet knows about the fight stays put. The projection follows one identity: projection = p × points on a win + (1 − p) × points on a loss.

Take a fictional fighter with 110 points on a win and 30 on a loss. At the sheet's 55%, his projection is 0.55 × 110 + 0.45 × 30 = 74 points. Move him to 65% and it becomes 0.65 × 110 + 0.35 × 30 = 82 points. Here each percentage point of win chance is worth 0.8 points: the distance between his two scores, divided by 100.

The 100+ chance, the round 1 chance and the decision chance scale with your win chance. Say the sheet has him 55% to win and 44% to score 100. His 100+ chance when he wins is 44 ÷ 55 = 80%, and that stays fixed. At 65% to win, his 100+ chance becomes 0.65 × 80% = 52%. Round 1 and decision scale the same way and never pass the win chance.

Points on a win does not change. Neither do points on a loss or his salary. Your number says how often he wins. It does not say he wins bigger. Set the win chance back to the sheet's and every number matches the sheet again.

Owned: why the field's share matters

Owned is the share of lineups you expect to have him. In a tournament a big score helps you as much as it separates you from the room. If half the room has him, his 120 points lift half the room with you.

Call it reads leverage as the 100+ chance minus owned. A fighter 44% to score 100 at 30% owned reads +14 pp. A fighter 40% to score 100 at 55% owned reads −15 pp. A positive number says the room holds him less often than he clears 100 in our number. It is a read on the room. It says nothing new about the fight.

You can set owned too. Type your own share if you expect the room to move late. Leverage follows both inputs. Ownership also differs by contest type. The sheet shows flagship, mega, 20-max, single entry and cash, and the room you play is the one that counts.

Building on your numbers

Your numbers stay in your browser, saved per card on this device. They never leave it. Once a bout is on your numbers, Build with my numbers opens the optimizer for that card with your projections and ownership already filled in.

In the optimizer a line reads Your numbers, with the count of bouts on your numbers. Use your numbers and Sheet numbers switch between the two sets. The results say which numbers built them: built on your numbers, with the bout count, or built on the sheet.

On the sheet, the Mine overlay draws your numbers over the rows. Projection and 100+ cells show your value with the sheet's underneath and a small Δ tag for the change. A Leverage (mine) column adds the 100+ chance minus owned for every row.

Typing wins. Any projection or ownership you type in the optimizer takes over from the number your call filled in. Every lineup is your own.

Four mistakes to avoid

Most weak calls come from a few habits. Each one is quick to check before the card starts.

• Taking the price as truth. It carries a margin and it moves with the market. It is one read, and so is ours.
• Double counting a finish. A finish already lives inside points on a win and the 100+ chance. Raise his win chance for an expected knockout, and do not also add points to his projection by hand for the same knockout.
• Moving six bouts at once. Change one bout, read what moved, then go to the next. Six changes at once hide which one drove the lineup.
• Forgetting the opponent moves too. Every point of win chance you give one fighter comes off the other. At 65% for him, his opponent sits at 35%, with a lower projection and a lower 100+ chance.

Common questions