KNOCKOUT MMA

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan

Saturday, October 10, 2026 · contests started 5:00 PM ET · published Oct 7, 10:06 PM ET

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The first two bouts are open. One email opens the rest.

Open the full sheet

Every fighter on the card: win chance, how it ends, points on a win or a loss, the 100+ chance and ownership. Free this week with one email.

Call it

I want to win if against Christian Leroy Duncan. The book has it at .

Published sheet Every underlined word is yours to change. The numbers are the sheet’s.

Our chance54.3%the sheet says Brendan Allen wins · −119 as a price
The book’s chance—type the book’s price to compare
The gap—our chance minus the book’s, in percentage points
To win $100.00—what the book’s price asks you to risk

Brendan Allen: 111.4 DraftKings points on a win · 100+ chance 49% · projection 71.3 · salary $8,500

Owned by room: Flagship 42% · Mega 42% · 20-max 43% · Single entry 46% · Cash 69%

Our number, from the sheet. The book’s chance keeps its margin in. The call is yours.

Your numbers

Change a win chance or an ownership share; every number recomputes in your browser and stays on this device.
0 of 2 bouts on your numbersBiggest projection change: —Biggest leverage change: —Write a number above first.

1. I think wins of the time and the field has the fighter at owned.

Sheet and your numbers for Brendan Allen and Christian Leroy Duncan. Differences are your numbers minus the sheet.
Bout 1Brendan AllenChristian Leroy Duncan
SheetYoursSheetYours
Win54.3%54.3%45.7%45.7%
Projection71.371.363.663.6
100+ chance48.7%48.7%40.4%40.4%
Round 113.5%13.5%12.3%12.3%
Decision19.4%19.4%13.0%13.0%
Owned42.1%42.1%43.0%43.0%
100+ chance minus owned+6.6 pp+6.6 pp−2.6 pp−2.6 pp

2. I think wins of the time and the field has the fighter at owned.

Sheet and your numbers for Jai Herbert and Matheus Camilo. Differences are your numbers minus the sheet.
Bout 2Jai HerbertMatheus Camilo
SheetYoursSheetYours
Win36.6%36.6%63.4%63.4%
Projection41.641.668.968.9
100+ chance11.3%11.3%26.1%26.1%
Round 111.3%11.3%15.5%15.5%
Decision16.5%16.5%31.8%31.8%
Owned27.7%27.7%28.2%28.2%
100+ chance minus owned−16.4 pp−16.4 pp−2.2 pp−2.2 pp
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Your numbers never leave this browser. Move the win chance back to the sheet’s, or press Reset, and every number matches the sheet again. The full sheet

How the numbers work

Our chance comes straight from the sheet: wins is the win column, wins by decision is the decision column, wins in round 1 is the round 1 column, and wins inside the distance is the win chance minus the decision chance.

The book’s chance is the price you type, turned into a chance with the bookmaker’s margin still in it: +150 is 40%, −200 is 66.7%. The gap is our chance minus that, in percentage points (pp). The risk line is what that price asks you to put up to win the amount in your sentence.

Your numbers are the edge. The sheet is where the field starts. Your numbers on each bout are where you leave it. Lineups built from them are yours: different from the field, and different from every other member’s.

Your numbers change one input, the win chance, and keep everything else the sheet knows about the fight. The projection is the win chance times the points on a win plus the loss chance times the points on a loss. The 100+ chance, round 1 and decision scale with the win chance (the 100+ chance given a win stays the same). Leverage is the 100+ chance minus the share of lineups you expect to roster that fighter. Set the win chance back to the sheet’s and every number matches the sheet.

Your numbers stay in this browser and never leave it. The sheet says what it says, and the call is yours. The full sheet How to write a call